Earth LinC · Earth Watching Benchmark 01 — Landing 2026 四条流域 / Quatre bassins

Earth Watching,
Landing
and Flowing 地球观察・落地・流动 Observer la Terre, atterrir, et suivre le courant

This is not a monitoring report. It is not a score. It is a method for landing — a way of coming down out of orbit onto one region at a time and reading it through its rivers: where the water starts, how far it falls, who lives on it, what it carries, and what it is losing.

Four landings in this pass: Mongolia, Spain, Aotearoa New Zealand, Mexico. Three time horizons: 2026 · 2026–2035 · 2035–2050.

这不是监测报告,也不是打分。这是一种落地的方法:把视线从轨道降到一个区域,然后沿着河流去读它——水从哪里来,落差有多大,谁住在岸上,河水带走了什么,又失去了什么。

本次落地四地:蒙古、西班牙、新西兰、墨西哥;三个时间尺度:2026 / 2026–2035 / 2035–2050

Ce n'est ni un rapport de surveillance ni une notation. C'est une méthode d'atterrissage : descendre de l'orbite vers une région et la lire par ses fleuves — la source, la dénivelée, les riverains, ce que l'eau transporte et ce qu'elle perd.

Quatre atterrissages : Mongolie, Espagne, Nouvelle-Zélande, Mexique. Trois horizons : 2026 · 2026–2035 · 2035–2050.

How this landing works

Methodology · 方法 · Méthode
The seven readings

For each region we look for the same seven things, and nothing more: water (how much, when, from where), the basin and its boundaries, people and urbanisation along the channel, terrain and head — the potential energy stored in the drop from headwater to mouth, flood exposure, pollution and ecology, and the state of the riverbank itself.

Then three questions: what is genuinely good, what is on track for 2026–2035, and what is behind, damaged or at risk.

七个读法

每个区域只看同样的七件事:水量与季节流域边界流域内的人口与城市化地形与落差势能(从源头到河口的高差里储存的能量)、洪水风险污染与生态,以及水岸本身的状态

然后问三个问题:哪些做得;哪些在 2026–2035 的轨道上;哪些落后、已受损、正在风险中

Les sept lectures

Pour chaque région, les mêmes sept lectures : l'eau (combien, quand, d'où), le bassin, la population et l'urbanisation, le relief et la dénivelée — l'énergie potentielle du fleuve, le risque d'inondation, la pollution et l'écologie, et l'état des berges.

Puis trois questions : ce qui va bien, ce qui est dans les temps pour 2026–2035, ce qui est en retard, abîmé ou menacé.

Good · 做得好

Real, verifiable protection or restoration already in the world.

On track 26–35

Committed, funded, plausible on the stated timeline.

Behind · 落后

Announced but slipping, under-resourced or contested.

Damage & risk

Loss already measurable, or exposure rising fast.

Every figure below carries a source in the reference index at the end. Where public data is modelled rather than measured, it is said so. This page is a node in a living knowledge graph — we will land here again, and the numbers will have moved.

Four landings

01–04 · in the order requested
01

Mongolia蒙古 · Mongolie

Selenge–Orkhon–Tuul → Lake Baikal
Kherlen · Onon → Amur
Khovd · Zavkhan → Great Lakes Depression (endorheic)
Population≈3.5 MOne of the lowest densities on Earth, ~2 people/km²
Urbanisation≈69%Ulaanbaatar alone holds roughly half the nation, ~1.6–1.7 M
Selenge basin282,000 km²Mongolian share of a 447,000 km² transboundary basin
Head / 落差3,000 → 456 mKhangai–Khentii headwaters down to Lake Baikal's surface
Baikal inflow≈50%Share of the world's largest freshwater lake fed by the Selenge
Water · 水

Mongolia is three hydrological worlds at once: an Arctic drainage (Selenge → Baikal → Yenisei), a Pacific drainage (Onon and Kherlen → Amur), and a vast closed interior — the Great Lakes Depression and the Gobi, where rivers end in salt lakes or in the ground. Flow is snow- and monsoon-pulsed: most annual runoff arrives in a few summer weeks; rivers freeze to the bed in reaches through winter.

三个水文世界并存:北冰洋水系(色楞格→贝加尔湖)、太平洋水系(鄂嫩、克鲁伦→黑龙江)、以及广阔的内流区(大湖盆地与戈壁)。径流高度集中在夏季数周,冬季部分河段冻至河床。

Terrain & head

The relief is high but gentle: headwaters at 2,500–3,500 m fall to a 456 m lake over more than a thousand kilometres of steppe. That means low gradient, low erosive power, and modest hydropower head compared with mountain nations — but also long, slow, braided reaches, wide floodplains and heavy sediment residence. Ulaanbaatar sits on the Tuul at ~1,300 m, on gravels that are the city's aquifer.

高海拔但低坡降:源头 2,500–3,500 米,千余公里草原后落至 456 米的贝加尔湖。落差势能有限、水力发电潜力中等,但河道漫长、辫状、洪泛区宽阔。乌兰巴托位于图勒河谷 1,300 米,城市取水依赖河谷砂砾含水层。

Flood · 洪水

Risk is concentrated, not distributed: summer flash floods in ger districts on Ulaanbaatar's unpaved slopes, where runoff coefficients are high and drainage informal, plus ice-jam and snowmelt floods on the Selenge and Kherlen. The compound hazard that actually kills livestock and livelihoods is the drought → dzud couplet, as in the 2023–24 winter.

Pollution · 污染

Two signatures dominate the public record: untreated and under-treated municipal wastewater entering the Tuul below Ulaanbaatar, and placer gold mining that has physically dismantled riverbeds and riparian zones in the Tuul, Orkhon and Zaamar reaches — turbidity, channel destruction, mercury and abandoned pits. Mining and coal water demand competes directly with the Gobi's fossil groundwater.

Nature & bank

Mongolia's riparian corridors are among the least fragmented in Asia — the Onon–Balj and Mongol Daguur complexes, taimen rivers in Khövsgöl, and Ramsar wetlands on the Selenge delta. The country protects roughly a fifth of its territory and has publicly committed toward the 30% pathway. The Selenge remains a free-flowing river of global significance; that is the single biggest asset in this landing.

Agriculture & industry

Not irrigation-dominated: livestock (a herd that passed 60 million head) grazes the water's edge, and the transformation pressure comes from mining, coal-to-chemicals and urban water supply. Industry transformation here means dry cooling, tailings water recycling, and rehabilitating rivers that mining licences already crossed.

Good
  • Selenge still substantially free-flowing; Baikal's World Heritage status has repeatedly stalled mainstem dam proposals (Shuren, Orkhon transfer).
  • Large, genuinely wild protected river corridors (Onon–Balj, Mongol Daguur, Khövsgöl).
  • Transboundary attention — Mongolia–Russia–UNESCO review processes force basin-scale assessment.
On track 2026–35
  • Protected-area expansion toward 30% and reforestation ("One Billion Trees") giving headwater cover co-benefits.
  • Ulaanbaatar water supply diversification and metering; groundwater monitoring networks.
Behind
  • Central wastewater treatment capacity for Ulaanbaatar — repeatedly delayed against demand growth.
  • Placer-mine river rehabilitation: obligations exist, closure and restoration lag.
  • Ger-district drainage and sanitation for a still-arriving urban population.
Damage & risk
  • Tuul reaches below the capital: seasonal dry-out plus effluent load.
  • Permafrost thaw in Khangai/Khentii headwaters — the storage that keeps rivers flowing in late summer.
  • Gobi groundwater drawdown for mining; small-lake and spring disappearance recorded across the interior.
Landing note

Mongolia's rivers are rare because they are still mostly whole. The decisive decade is not about repair; it is about not starting the damage.

落地小记

蒙古河流的珍贵在于基本完整。未来十年的关键不是修复,而是不要开始破坏。

Note d'atterrissage

Les fleuves mongols sont rares parce qu'ils sont encore presque intacts. La décennie décisive n'est pas celle de la réparation, mais celle du refus d'abîmer.

02

Spain西班牙 · Espagne

Ebro · Tajo · Duero · Guadiana
Guadalquivir → Doñana
Júcar · Segura · Mar Menor lagoon
Population≈48.8 MConcentrated on coasts and in the Madrid–Tagus headwater region
Urbanisation≈81%Plus a summer tourist population layered onto the driest basins
Ebro basin85,534 km²Largest in Spain; mean discharge at the delta ~400 m³/s and falling
Head / 落差~1,400 mCazorla to the Atlantic (Guadalquivir); Pyrenees >2,000 m to the Ebro delta
Water use~80%Share of consumptive water going to irrigated agriculture
Water · 水

Spain is the most heavily engineered water system in Western Europe: over a thousand large dams, inter-basin transfers (Tagus–Segura), and a national reservoir network reported daily. Rainfall is bimodal in space — an Atlantic north with surplus, a Mediterranean south-east in structural deficit where demand no longer waits for rain but for desalination and reuse.

西欧水利工程化程度最高的国家之一:上千座大坝、跨流域调水(塔霍—塞古拉)。北部大西洋侧盈余,东南地中海侧结构性缺水,需求已从"等雨"转向海水淡化与再生水。

Terrain & head

A high central Meseta (600–800 m) rimmed by ranges, drained by long rivers that incise sharply at the edges — hence Spain's exceptional hydropower and pumped-storage head, and hence the danger. Short Mediterranean ramblas and barrancos fall from 1,000 m to the sea in tens of kilometres: dry for years, then delivering a wall of water in hours.

中央高原(600–800 米)四周被山系包围,河流在边缘急剧下切——既造就了优异的水电与抽水蓄能落差势能,也带来风险:地中海侧短小的干河谷可在几十公里内落差千米,数年干涸,数小时成灾。

Flood · 洪水

The 29 October 2024 DANA over Valencia is now the reference event: more than 700 mm in 24 hours at Turís, the Poyo ravine and Magro overwhelming urbanised floodplain, and over 220 deaths. It exposed the real gap — not the absence of maps (Spain's flood-risk mapping is mature) but warning-to-action time in places built where water used to go.

Pollution · 污染

Nitrate is the defining pollutant: intensive irrigation in Campo de Cartagena drove the Mar Menor lagoon into repeated anoxic collapse and mass fish die-off. Aquifer over-abstraction — with an estimated order of a million unauthorised wells nationally — links pollution and scarcity into one problem. Doñana's marshes have contracted as the aquifer beneath them fell.

Nature & bank

Here is Europe's brightest river story: Spain removes more river barriers than any other European country, in the hundreds since 2018, reopening spawning routes on the Mijares, Duero and Cantabrian rivers. And in 2022 the Mar Menor became the first ecosystem in Europe granted legal personhood by popular legislative initiative. Against that, the Ebro delta — 320 km², much of it under half a metre above sea level — is sediment-starved by upstream dams and losing ground to the sea.

Agriculture & industry

Europe's orchard and greenhouse, running on the driest water. The transformation underway is real but uneven: pressurised and deficit irrigation, treated-wastewater reuse under the EU reuse regulation, solar-powered desalination on the south-east coast, and pumped hydro repurposing old head. The unresolved question is whether efficiency gains are returned to the river or reinvested in more hectares.

Good
  • European leader in dam and weir removal — measurable reconnection of river length.
  • Mar Menor legal personhood (2022): a new legal instrument other regions can copy.
  • Doñana agreement (2023): a funded transition plan replacing an expansion of irrigation rights.
  • Dense, public, daily hydrological data — reservoirs, drought indices, flood maps.
On track 2026–35
  • Third-cycle basin plans with binding environmental-flow regimes (notably the Tagus at Aranjuez–Toledo–Talavera).
  • Reuse and desalination capacity in the Segura/Júcar arc; urban demand efficiency.
  • Nature-based flood measures and floodplain reclaim after 2024.
Behind
  • Closing illegal abstraction — enforcement is slower than the aquifer decline.
  • Nitrate reduction to lagoon-recovery thresholds in Mar Menor and Guadiana.
  • Inter-basin transfer politics blocking basin-level allocation reform.
  • Relocating or retrofitting urbanisation inside mapped flood zones.
Damage & risk
  • Ebro delta subsidence + sea-level rise + sediment starvation: partial loss is already programmed.
  • Doñana wetland contraction — a World Heritage site drying from below.
  • Compound drought–heat cycles reducing reservoir reliability faster than plans assume.
Landing note

Spain proves two things at once: that a country can take barriers out of its rivers at scale, and that no amount of engineering saves a floodplain we insist on inhabiting.

落地小记

西班牙同时证明两件事:一个国家可以大规模拆除河道障碍;而任何工程都救不回我们坚持居住的洪泛区。

Note d'atterrissage

L'Espagne démontre deux choses : on peut retirer les barrages à grande échelle ; et aucun ouvrage ne sauve une plaine inondable que l'on s'obstine à habiter.

03

Aotearoa
New Zealand新西兰 · Nouvelle-Zélande

Waikato (425 km, longest)
Clutha / Mata-Au (largest by volume)
Whanganui · Manawatū · Esk & Tūtaekurī (Hawke's Bay)
Population≈5.3 M≈87% urban, but the pressure on rivers is rural
Dairy cattle≈6 MMore cattle than people in the lowland catchments
Waikato catchment14,260 km²Lake Taupō (357 m) → Tasman Sea, eight hydro stations
Head / 落差>2,000 mSouthern Alps to sea in under 100 km — extreme specific runoff
Clutha flow≈600 m³/sHighest-volume river in the country, lake-buffered
Water · 水

Abundance with terrible timing. Some of the highest runoff per square kilometre in the world, delivered by orographic westerlies onto a mountain spine, then drained east through dry, irrigated plains. The result is a country that floods and irrigates in the same season, and where lakes (Taupō, Wānaka, Hāwea, Wakatipu) act as the national reservoir, storing both water and electricity.

水量丰沛但时机严酷。单位面积径流量全球领先,西风带地形抬升降雨,向东排入干燥的灌溉平原:同一季节里既防洪又灌溉;陶波、瓦纳卡等湖泊实际上是国家级的水库与"电池"。

Terrain & head

The steepest hydrology in this landing. Catchment response is measured in hours, not days; sediment yields are among the highest on Earth in the erodible East Coast hill country. That same relief makes hydro the backbone of an electricity system that is roughly 80–90% renewable — the 落差势能 is literally the national grid, and a dry year in the Clutha headwaters is a national energy event.

四地中坡降最陡:汇流响应以小时计;东岸易蚀丘陵输沙量居世界前列。同样的落差支撑起以水电为骨干、约 80–90% 可再生的电力系统——落差势能就是国家电网,克鲁萨源头的枯水年即是全国性的能源事件。

Flood · 洪水

Cyclone Gabrielle (February 2023) is the calibration point: eleven deaths, whole valleys in Hawke's Bay buried in silt, and damage estimates in the many billions of NZ dollars — the country's costliest weather event. Three weeks earlier Auckland took its wettest day on record. Ex-tropical cyclones reaching further south is the risk signal, and it lands on rivers that already move mountains of sediment.

Pollution · 污染

Not industrial — diffuse. Nitrogen, phosphorus, sediment and E. coli from pastoral intensification put a large share of monitored lowland river length in the poorest national bands for swimmability and nitrate toxicity, while groundwater nitrate rises in Canterbury and Southland. Reporting is unusually honest and public; that transparency is itself an asset.

Nature & bank

The world's most important legal innovation in river governance happened here. The Te Awa Tupua (Whanganui River Claims Settlement) Act 2017 recognised the Whanganui as a legal person with its own standing and guardians. On the Waikato, a Māori–Crown co-governance settlement (2010) established a binding Vision & Strategy and a long-term clean-up fund. On the ground: tens of thousands of kilometres of stock-excluded, replanted riparian margin — the largest voluntary riverbank restoration programme in the southern hemisphere.

Agriculture & industry

Dairy, horticulture and forestry are the economy and the load. Transformation levers actually in motion: nitrogen caps and fertiliser limits, effluent-system upgrades, wetland reconstruction as nutrient interception, and precision-fertiliser using satellite and drone data. The countervailing force is policy reversal risk — freshwater rules that were tightened are being loosened again.

Good
  • Te Awa Tupua: a river with legal personhood — the global reference case.
  • Waikato co-governance with a 30-year funded restoration mandate.
  • Te Mana o te Wai: water's own health placed first in the national policy hierarchy.
  • Open, site-level public water-quality data (LAWA) anyone can audit.
On track 2026–35
  • Riparian fencing and planting at catchment scale; constructed wetlands.
  • Hydro-plus-wind/solar firming that reduces dry-year pressure on lake storage.
  • Post-Gabrielle managed retreat and floodplain redesign in Hawke's Bay.
Behind
  • Nutrient trends: reductions are slower than the ecological recovery times assumed.
  • Resource-management reform and the reweighting of freshwater rules — regulatory certainty lost.
  • Urban wastewater and stormwater renewal backlogs in Auckland and Wellington.
Damage & risk
  • East Coast sediment: forestry slash and hill-country erosion smothering river and estuary beds.
  • Braided-river bird habitat lost to willow, weed and abstraction.
  • Glacier and snowpack decline changing Clutha/Waitaki inflow timing — energy and irrigation together.
Landing note

New Zealand asked a question no dataset can answer and then legislated it: what if the river is a person? The measurements are still catching up with the law.

落地小记

新西兰提出并立法回答了一个数据无法回答的问题:如果河流本身就是一个"人"呢? 监测数据仍在追赶这部法律。

Note d'atterrissage

La Nouvelle-Zélande a posé — puis légiféré — une question hors de portée des données : et si le fleuve était une personne ? La mesure rattrape encore la loi.

04

Mexico墨西哥 · Mexique

Grijalva–Usumacinta (largest discharge)
Lerma–Santiago → Lake Chapala
Río Bravo / Rio Grande (shared) · Balsas · Pánuco
Valley of Mexico (endorheic)
Population≈130 M≈81% urban; two-thirds live where a third of the water falls
Valley of Mexico≈22 MA closed basin, drained artificially, subsiding up to ~40 cm/yr in places
Lerma–Santiago132,916 km²Industrial heartland + Lake Chapala, the largest lake in Mexico
Cutzamala lift>1,100 mWater pumped uphill into Mexico City — 落差势能 in reverse
Water use≈76%Share of withdrawals for agriculture
Water · 水

Mexico's water and Mexico's people are on opposite sides of the map. The Grijalva–Usumacinta in the wet south-east carries the largest discharge in the country through the least-populated basin; the arid north and the central plateau host the cities, the industry and the irrigation districts. Over 100 aquifers are formally over-exploited.

水与人分布相反:东南部的格里哈尔瓦—乌苏马辛塔径流量最大、人口最少;干旱的北部与中部高原集中了城市、工业与灌区。全国已有一百多个含水层被正式认定为超采。

Terrain & head

Two Sierra Madre escarpments frame a high plateau, giving steep, high-head rivers — the Grijalva alone carries a cascade of four large dams supplying a major share of national hydropower. But the central plateau's defining fact is negative head: Mexico City sits at 2,240 m in a basin with no outlet, so water must be pumped over a kilometre uphill from the Cutzamala and sewage pumped out through tunnels. Both directions cost energy no other megacity pays at this scale.

东西马德雷山系夹着中央高原,河流坡陡、水头高(格里哈尔瓦四级大坝贡献可观水电)。但高原的关键事实是"反向落差":墨西哥城位于 2,240 米的无出口盆地,供水需从库察马拉抬升逾千米,污水需靠隧道外排——两个方向都在支付其他特大城市不必支付的能耗。

Flood · 洪水

Flood and drought arrive in the same year. Tabasco's Grijalva lowlands flood almost structurally; Hurricane Otis (Acapulco, 2023) and Tula's 2021 flood showed how fast urban river reaches fail. Meanwhile the 2024 Cutzamala low point took reservoirs toward a quarter of capacity and put "day zero" into national conversation. Subsidence in Mexico City is now itself a flood driver, cracking drains and reversing gradients.

Pollution · 污染

The Río Santiago at El Salto–Juanacatlán is one of the Americas' most documented industrial-and-municipal pollution cases, with human-rights findings attached to it; the Atoyac (Puebla–Tlaxcala) and the Tula (receiving Mexico City's wastewater for irrigation) complete a trio that is now named in national sanitation programmes. Untreated municipal discharge remains the largest single load.

Nature & bank

Two genuinely strong assets. First, the 2018 water-reserve decrees: environmental flows legally reserved across 295 basins, covering a majority share of national runoff — one of the largest environmental-flow allocations ever enacted anywhere. Second, the south-east's intact riparian and wetland complexes: Pantanos de Centla (over 300,000 ha, Ramsar) and the Usumacinta–Lacandona corridor, still among the great freshwater ecosystems of the Americas.

Agriculture & industry

Irrigation districts in the north-west and Bajío, and export manufacturing along the border, both drawing on stressed basins. Transformation in motion: the national water plan's sanitation of the Santiago, Atoyac and Tula; technified irrigation and volumetric metering; nearshoring pushed to prove water availability before it builds. Unresolved: the 1944 Rio Grande treaty deliveries, where cycle deficits have become a recurring bilateral flashpoint.

Good
  • Environmental water reserves in 295 basins — legal flow for nature at national scale.
  • Usumacinta–Centla: a large, still-functioning tropical river–wetland system, Ramsar-listed.
  • Public basin data infrastructure (SINA) and an operational national drought monitor.
On track 2026–35
  • National water plan priority sanitation for Santiago, Atoyac and Tula, with new treatment capacity.
  • Rainwater harvesting, leak reduction and reuse in the Valley of Mexico; Cutzamala demand relief.
  • Volumetric metering and concession review in over-exploited aquifers.
Behind
  • Wastewater treatment coverage and, crucially, plants that are built but not running.
  • Enforcement against industrial discharge on the Santiago and Atoyac.
  • Rio Grande / Río Bravo delivery cycles and shared-basin drought rules.
  • Aquifer recovery: over-exploitation declarations outpace actual reductions.
Damage & risk
  • Mexico City subsidence — irreversible aquifer compaction, damaged drainage, rising flood exposure.
  • Lake Chapala and Lerma flow variability; mangrove and estuary loss on both coasts.
  • Health impacts in communities on the Santiago and Atoyac — the sharpest environmental-justice case in this landing.
Landing note

Mexico holds both extremes in one country: a legal reserve of environmental flow across 295 basins, and a capital city that must lift its water a kilometre uphill to survive.

落地小记

墨西哥在同一个国家里同时呈现两个极端:295 个流域的生态水量法定保留,以及一座必须把水提升一千米才能活下去的首都。

Note d'atterrissage

Le Mexique réunit les deux extrêmes : des débits écologiques réservés dans 295 bassins, et une capitale qui doit élever son eau d'un kilomètre pour subsister.

The river is not a line on a map. It is a living system, and it is already answering — say hi, and read what it says.
Calibration

If something here was new to you, that is the benchmark working. Not a score — a shared calibration between us and a changing planet.

校准

如果这里有你此前未曾想到的部分,这就是 benchmark 在起作用。不是评分,而是我们与一个不断变化的地球之间的共同校准。

Calibrage

Si quelque chose ici vous était inconnu, le benchmark a fonctionné. Non pas une note : un calibrage partagé avec une planète qui change.

Three horizons of flow

2026 · 2026–2035 · 2035–2050
2026Headwaters · 源头 · Sources
What is actually landing now

The year the plans meet the channel

2026 is a checkpoint year, not a target year. Spain enters it operating third-cycle basin plans with enforceable environmental flows and a post-DANA floodplain reckoning. New Zealand enters it with freshwater rules being rewritten while restoration on the ground continues. Mexico enters it with a national water plan naming three rivers by name. Mongolia enters it with its major rivers still unimpounded and a treatment gap in one city that carries half the population.

Read 2026 for commitments becoming construction, and for the first basins where efficiency was returned to the river instead of to new hectares.

2026 要看的是承诺是否变成了工程,以及哪些流域第一次把节水量还给了河流,而不是投入更多耕地。

Lire 2026 comme le passage des engagements aux chantiers, et repérer les bassins qui rendent l'eau économisée au fleuve.

ES · environmental flows in force MX · 295-basin reserves standing NZ · freshwater rules reopened MN · Ulaanbaatar treatment gap
2026–2035Middle course · 中游 · Cours moyen
The decade that decides recovery

Reconnect, treat, retreat

Three verbs carry this decade. Reconnect: barrier removal and fish passage, where Spain is the working proof and Mexico's reserves are the legal opening. Treat: municipal wastewater — the single highest-return investment in Mongolia and Mexico, and the urban gap in New Zealand. Retreat: give floodplains back, in Hawke's Bay, in the Valencian huerta, in Tabasco's lowlands.

On track over this window: protected-area expansion and headwater cover (MN), reuse and desalination in the Mediterranean arc (ES), riparian planting and constructed wetlands (NZ), priority-river sanitation (MX). Behind: enforcement everywhere — illegal abstraction, industrial discharge, unfinished plants, mine-site rehabilitation. Enforcement, not ambition, is the binding constraint.

Barrier removal at scale Riparian restoration Enforcement & monitoring capacity Nutrient trend reversal Aquifer & permafrost storage loss
2035–2050Delta · 河口 · Delta
Where irreversibility is decided

Sediment, storage, subsidence, sea

By mid-century the questions are structural and mostly one-way. The Ebro delta will be defended, fed with sediment, or partly surrendered — that decision is made in the next ten years, not the last ten. Cryosphere and permafrost storage in the Mongolian headwaters and the Southern Alps changes when water arrives, which changes irrigation and, in New Zealand, the electricity system. Mexico City's subsidence compounds: every year of over-extraction removes storage that cannot be refilled.

And the counter-scenario is equally real: a Selenge still free-flowing in 2050; the Usumacinta–Centla wetlands intact; the Whanganui's legal personhood normalised across a dozen more rivers; Iberian rivers reconnected end to end. Both futures are currently affordable. That is the opportunity, as one Earth.

Delta loss (Ebro) Irreversible subsidence (CDMX) Snow/permafrost timing shift Free-flowing rivers kept free Rights-of-river as norm

AI, empowering the watch

Ai empower · 人工智能赋能

Not automation for its own sake. Four places where machine learning already changes what a basin can know about itself — and where the reference links below let you check the model, not just the headline.

Forecasting flow where there are no gauges

Sequence models trained on global streamflow now predict river levels in ungauged basins days ahead — precisely the situation in Mongolian steppe rivers and much of southern Mexico.

Seeing water through cloud

Radar satellites map flood extent at night and under storm cover; automated classification turned Cyclone Gabrielle and the Valencia DANA into mapped footprints within days, not seasons.

Reading the reservoir and the lagoon

Optical time series give surface area, turbidity and chlorophyll for reservoirs and lakes — Chapala, Cutzamala, Mar Menor — as continuous curves instead of occasional samples.

Digital twins of a basin

Coupled climate–hydrology twins let a basin authority test an environmental-flow rule, a dam removal or a managed retreat before pouring concrete. The model is only as honest as its monitoring.

Reference index

Sources & deeper diving · 数据来源

Primary and institutional sources for the figures above, and the doorways for the next dive. Where a page cites a modelled national statistic, follow the agency link for the current value — these numbers move.

Global · basins, flow, risk

Mongolia · 蒙古

Spain · 西班牙

Aotearoa New Zealand · 新西兰

Mexico · 墨西哥

AI & earth-observation tools

Where we land next

7 candidates · 4 proposed · 下一次落地

Chosen for continental spread and for the different kinds of river question each one asks. Four are proposed as the next pass (marked ◆); all seven stay in the graph.

05

Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan中亚 · Asie centrale

Central Asia. Syr Darya, Amu Darya, the Aral's afterlife — the world's most instructive story about irrigation, a shared basin, and a sea that was spent.

In the graph
06

Netherlands & Germany莱茵—默兹 · Rhin-Meuse

Europe. Rhine–Meuse: 2021 flood memory, "Room for the River", low-flow navigation crises. The most advanced adaptation laboratory on Earth.

In the graph
07

Papua New Guinea巴布亚新几内亚 · Papouasie-N.-G.

Oceania. The Fly and the Sepik: two of the last great tropical rivers, one already carrying mine waste, one still nearly untouched. A choice, not a forecast.

In the graph
This station stays open — we land here again