Global sustainability · Earth data research & insights hub

Earth Watching
& Landing

地球观察与落地 · 一张活的知识图谱 · Observation de la Terre et atterrissage

Not a score. Not an investment note. A way of looking: land on a country, read its ten living systems, then follow the data down. Four landings for 2026 — and the same four read forward to 2035 and 2050.

这不是评分，也不是投资报告，而是一种地球观察方法：先在一个国家「落地」，读它的十个系统，再顺着数据深潜。2026 年先落地四处，并把同样的四处读到 2035 与 2050。

Ni notation, ni note d'investissement : une manière de regarder. On atterrit sur un pays, on lit ses dix systèmes vivants, puis on plonge dans les données — pour 2026, 2026-2035 et 2035-2050.

4 landings 10 systems 3 horizons 2026 → 2050 38 open sources 7 next candidates

The four landings · 四处落地

How we land · 落地方法 · Méthode

Land once, then keep coming back. 落地一次不算落地。它是一张活的知识图谱，与真实世界相连。 Un atterrissage n'est jamais unique : c'est un graphe de connaissances vivant.

01 — Land

Big picture first

Ten systems, one page, one country. Carbon, water, energy, waste, materials, population, nature, AI, agriculture, industry. Enough to see the shape before the detail.

十个系统，一页，一个国家：碳、水、能源、废弃物、材料、人口、自然、AI、农业、产业。先看形状，再看细节。

Dix systèmes, une page, un pays : voir la forme avant le détail.

02 — Deep dive

Follow the source down

Every claim carries a live reference so you can keep going past this page. Where the data disagrees, we say so instead of averaging it away.

每一条判断都附上可点开的原始来源，方便继续深潜。数据互相矛盾时，我们如实标出，而不是取平均。

Chaque affirmation porte sa source vivante ; les désaccords sont signalés, non lissés.

03 — Re-land

Calibrate, again

The same country is re-read as reality moves — a target revised, a grid unblocked, a reservoir refilled. The page is a node in a living graph, not a report.

现实在动，我们就再读一次：目标被修改、电网被打通、水库被填满。这一页是活图谱中的一个节点，不是一份报告。

On relit le même pays quand le réel bouge : la page est un nœud vivant, pas un rapport.

On track — 在轨 · en voie Watch — 需盯紧 · à surveiller Behind — 落后 · en retard

Landing 0152.1°N 5.3°EWestern Europe

Netherlands

荷兰 · Pays-Bas

A country engineered against water, now re-engineering itself against nitrogen, congestion and its own scarcity of space.

Population≈18.0m人口 · growth almost entirely migration (CBS)
Carbon−37% vs 1990 (2023) · goal −55% by 2030
Power≈50% renewablesolar ≈24 GW · offshore wind 4.7 → 21 GW by 2032
Circularity27.5%circular material use rate — highest in the EU (Eurostat)

The Dutch story used to be one number: how much land sits below sea level (about a quarter). In 2026 it is three numbers fighting each other — tonnes of CO₂, kilograms of nitrogen, and megawatts a congested grid cannot deliver. Solar per person is world-leading and coal closes in 2030, yet whole provinces have queues for a new grid connection, and permits for houses, farms and factories stall on nitrogen deposition near Natura 2000 sites.

荷兰过去只有一个数字：约四分之一国土低于海平面。2026 年却是三个数字在互相拉扯——二氧化碳吨数、氮沉降公斤数，以及拥堵电网送不出的兆瓦。人均光伏世界领先、2030 年退出煤电，但多个省份新增并网要排队，住房、农场与工厂的许可又卡在 Natura 2000 保护区附近的氮沉降上。

Le récit néerlandais tenait à un chiffre : un quart du pays sous le niveau de la mer. En 2026, trois chiffres s'affrontent — le CO₂, l'azote, et les mégawatts qu'un réseau saturé ne peut livrer.

“The scarcest Dutch resource is no longer water or land. It is grid capacity — and permission.” 最稀缺的荷兰资源已不是水或土地，而是电网容量与「许可」。 La ressource la plus rare n'est plus l'eau ni la terre : c'est la capacité du réseau — et le permis.
Carbon 碳 · CarboneWatch−37% since 1990; PBL projects only 44–52% by 2030 against a 55% goal.较 1990 年降约 37%；PBL 预计 2030 年仅 44–52%，低于 55% 目标。−37 % depuis 1990 ; projection 2030 de 44–52 % pour une cible de 55 %.
Water 水 · EauOn trackDelta Programme funded to 2050; the 2018 & 2022 droughts shifted the question from too much water to too little.三角洲计划资金已排到 2050；2018 与 2022 年干旱把问题从「水太多」变成「水太少」。Programme Delta financé jusqu'en 2050 ; le risque bascule vers la sécheresse.
Energy 能源 · ÉnergieOn trackCoal out by 2030, offshore wind scaling to 21 GW by 2032 — but grid congestion is the real ceiling.2030 年退煤，海上风电 2032 年到 21 GW；真正的天花板是电网拥堵。Sortie du charbon en 2030, 21 GW en mer d'ici 2032 ; le réseau est le plafond.
Waste 废弃物 · DéchetsWatchAround 500 kg per person a year, roughly half recycled; incineration still anchors the system.人均年产约 500 公斤，约一半回收；焚烧仍是体系支点。≈500 kg/habitant/an, la moitié recyclée ; l'incinération reste centrale.
Materials 材料 · MatériauxOn trackEU-leading 27.5% circular material use; national goal is a fully circular economy by 2050.循环材料使用率 27.5%，欧盟第一；目标 2050 年完全循环。27,5 % de matière circulaire, record UE ; économie circulaire visée en 2050.
Population 人口 · PopulationWatchCBS mid-scenario ≈19.6m by 2050; housing, not birth rate, is the binding constraint.CBS 中方案 2050 年约 1,960 万；真正的约束是住房而非生育率。≈19,6 M en 2050 ; le logement, non la natalité, est la contrainte.
Nature 自然 · NatureBehindNitrogen deposition still exceeds critical loads on most Natura 2000 sites; permitting stays gridlocked.多数 Natura 2000 保护区氮沉降仍超临界负荷，许可持续僵局。Dépôts d'azote au-dessus des seuils critiques ; permis bloqués.
AI 人工智能 · IAWatchASML makes the country a chokepoint of global compute, while data-centre siting collides with land and grid.ASML 让荷兰成为全球算力的关键节点，数据中心选址则撞上土地与电网。ASML, verrou mondial du calcul ; les data centers butent sur le réseau.
Agriculture 农业 · AgricultureBehindRoughly €120bn of agri-food exports from 1.8m ha; herd buy-outs are contested and the protein shift is slow.1,800 万亩土地撑起约 1,200 亿欧元农食出口；牧群回购争议大，蛋白转型缓慢。≈120 Mds € d'exportations agroalimentaires ; transition protéique lente.
Industry 产业 · IndustrieWatchTata Steel IJmuiden and Chemelot depend on hydrogen and CO₂ storage arriving on schedule.塔塔钢铁 IJmuiden 与 Chemelot 的减碳取决于氢与 CO₂ 封存能否按期到位。Sidérurgie et chimie dépendent du calendrier hydrogène/stockage CO₂.
2026What good looks like now

Grid-congestion maps shrink instead of spread; nitrogen permits start moving again; offshore wind tenders stay subscribed.

好的迹象：电网拥堵地图开始收缩、氮许可重新流动、海上风电招标仍有人接。

Bon signe : la congestion recule, les permis azote repartent, les appels d'offres en mer restent souscrits.

2026–2035On track / behind

On track: offshore wind, circular materials, flood safety. Behind: the −55% carbon path, nitrogen and nature restoration, heavy-industry hydrogen.

在轨：海上风电、循环材料、防洪。落后：−55% 碳路径、氮与自然恢复、重工业用氢。

En voie : éolien en mer, circularité, sécurité des crues. En retard : −55 %, azote, hydrogène industriel.

2035–2050The long question

Climate-neutral and fully circular by 2050 while accommodating ~2m more people and a possible 1m+ sea-level allowance in Delta scenarios.

2050 年气候中性且完全循环，同时容纳约 200 万新增人口，并按三角洲情景预留 1 米以上海平面上升空间。

Neutralité et circularité en 2050, avec 2 M d'habitants de plus et une marge de plus d'un mètre de mer.

Landing 0223.6°N 102.5°WNorth America

Mexico

墨西哥 · Mexique

The best solar resource in the OECD, the fastest factory boom on the continent — and a water table falling underneath both.

Population≈130m人口 · fertility ≈1.8 · working-age share peaking
Carbon≈700 MtCO₂e · NDC −35% vs BAU by 2030
Clean power≈24%of generation · ~22 GW of new build planned to 2030
Water60%+of withdrawals go to agriculture (Conagua)

In 2024 the Cutzamala system that helps supply Mexico City dropped toward a third of capacity and parts of the city sank by tens of centimetres in a single year. In the same period Mexico attracted record foreign investment as supply chains moved north. Nearshoring is real; so is the arithmetic that a new plant in the Bajío needs power, water and workers in a place where two of the three are already tight. The Sheinbaum administration's plan to add roughly 22 GW of capacity — much of it solar and wind — is the pivot to watch.

2024 年，为墨西哥城供水的 Cutzamala 系统跌到约三分之一容量，城市部分区域一年下沉数十厘米。同期，供应链北移让墨西哥吸引到创纪录外资。近岸外包是真的，算式也是真的：Bajío 新建工厂需要电、水与人，而其中两项本已紧张。政府计划新增约 22 GW 装机（以风光为主），这是最值得盯的转折点。

En 2024, le système Cutzamala est tombé près du tiers de sa capacité tandis que les investissements étrangers battaient des records. Le nearshoring est réel ; l'eau et l'électricité, comptées.

“Mexico's transition will not be decided by sunlight. It will be decided by aquifers and transmission lines.” 决定墨西哥转型的不是阳光，而是地下水与输电线。 Ce ne sont pas les rayons du soleil qui décideront, mais les aquifères et les lignes.
Carbon 碳 · CarboneBehindAbsolute emissions still rising; independent trackers rate the current 2030 pledge far off a 1.5°C path.总排放仍在上升；独立评估认为现行 2030 承诺远离 1.5°C 路径。Émissions en hausse ; l'engagement 2030 reste loin d'une trajectoire 1,5 °C.
Water 水 · EauBehindCutzamala near 30% in 2024; Mexico City subsides up to ~40 cm a year in the worst zones.2024 年 Cutzamala 近 30%；墨西哥城最严重区域年沉降可达约 40 厘米。Cutzamala près de 30 % en 2024 ; affaissement jusqu'à 40 cm/an.
Energy 能源 · ÉnergieWatchWorld-class solar and wind resource, a decade of slow permitting, now a state-led 2025–2030 build-out.世界级风光资源、十年缓慢审批，如今转为国家主导的 2025–2030 建设。Ressource solaire exceptionnelle, dix ans de lenteur, relance publique 2025-2030.
Waste 废弃物 · DéchetsBehindRoughly 120,000 tonnes a day of municipal waste, under a tenth recycled, much of it informally handled.日产城市垃圾约 12 万吨，回收率不足 10%，大量依靠非正规体系。≈120 000 t/jour, moins de 10 % recyclé, largement informel.
Materials 材料 · MatériauxWatchNearshoring pulls steel, cement and plastics hard; circular-economy policy is thin by comparison.近岸制造拉动钢铁、水泥与塑料；循环经济政策相对薄弱。Le nearshoring tire acier, ciment, plastiques ; la circularité reste faible.
Population 人口 · PopulationOn trackA demographic window open now: large working-age share, ageing arrives around mid-century.人口窗口正开：劳动年龄人口占比高，老龄化约在本世纪中叶到来。Fenêtre démographique ouverte ; le vieillissement viendra vers 2050.
Nature 自然 · NatureWatchAmong the five most biodiverse countries, still losing well over 100,000 ha of forest a year.全球生物多样性前五国家，每年仍失去十余万公顷森林。Parmi les cinq pays les plus divers ; plus de 100 000 ha de forêt perdus par an.
AI 人工智能 · IAWatchA fast-growing Querétaro data-centre cluster is being built on water- and power-stressed ground.克雷塔罗数据中心集群快速扩张，却建在水与电双紧的土地上。Le pôle de data centers de Querétaro grandit sur un sol tendu en eau.
Agriculture 农业 · AgricultureWatchBerries, avocado and beer exports boom on irrigation districts drawing from over-allocated aquifers.浆果、牛油果与啤酒出口繁荣，灌区却抽取超额分配的地下水。Baies, avocat, bière : un boom irrigué par des aquifères surexploités.
Industry 产业 · IndustrieOn trackRecord FDI near US$36bn; the open question is whether clean power and water arrive at the same speed.外资创纪录，近 360 亿美元；问题是清洁电力与水能否同速到达。IDE record (~36 Mds $) ; l'électricité propre suivra-t-elle ?
2026What good looks like now

Reservoir levels recovering through the World Cup year; the first gigawatts of the new build reaching financial close; leak repair funded in big cities.

世界杯之年水库回水；新增装机首批吉瓦完成融资关闭；大城市管网漏损修复获得资金。

Réservoirs qui remontent, premiers gigawatts financés, fuites urbaines réparées.

2026–2035On track / behind

On track: manufacturing investment, solar cost, demographics. Behind: water governance, waste, forest loss, absolute emissions.

在轨：制造业投资、光伏成本、人口结构。落后：水治理、废弃物、森林损失、绝对排放。

En voie : industrie, solaire, démographie. En retard : eau, déchets, forêts, émissions.

2035–2050The long question

Can a 145m-person, factory-rich Mexico run on sun and wind without draining the basins that feed its cities and farms?

当人口接近 1.45 亿、工厂密布，墨西哥能否靠风光运转，而不抽干供养城市与农田的流域？

145 M d'habitants, des usines partout : tourner au soleil sans vider les bassins ?

Landing 0325.3°S 133.8°EOceania

Australia

澳大利亚 · Australie

The world's best household solar sits on top of one of its largest fossil export machines. Both are true at once.

Population≈27.2m人口 · record migration rebound post-2022
Carbon−27%vs 2005 · 43% by 2030, 62–70% by 2035
Power≈40%renewable in the main grid · 82% target for 2030
Rooftops1 in 3homes with solar — the highest rate on Earth

More than four million Australian rooftops generate power, and on mild spring afternoons the main grid has run past 70% renewables. Yet the 82%-by-2030 target needs transmission lines and storage delivered faster than they are being approved, and the country remains one of the largest LNG and coal exporters in the world — emissions counted somewhere else, decided here. Meanwhile the Great Barrier Reef has bleached at mass scale five times in nine years, and the last national environment report called nature "poor and deteriorating".

超过 400 万户澳洲屋顶在发电，春天温和的下午，主电网可再生占比曾突破 70%。但 2030 年 82% 的目标需要输电与储能比目前审批速度更快落地；同时澳洲仍是全球最大的液化天然气与煤炭出口国之一——排放算在别处，决策在这里。九年间大堡礁已发生五次大规模白化，上一份国家环境报告称自然状况「差且持续恶化」。

Quatre millions de toits produisent de l'électricité ; le réseau a dépassé 70 % de renouvelables. Mais les lignes manquent, et le pays reste un géant du GNL.

“Australia decarbonises its own grid faster than almost anyone — and exports more carbon than almost anyone.” 澳洲电网减碳几乎全球最快，出口的碳也几乎全球最多。 Le réseau se décarbone vite ; les exportations de carbone, moins.
Carbon 碳 · CarboneWatchA legislated 43% by 2030 and a new 62–70% by 2035 target; electricity is doing most of the work.立法目标 2030 年降 43%，新增 2035 年 62–70%；主要靠电力部门贡献。43 % en 2030 dans la loi, 62–70 % en 2035 ; l'électricité fait l'essentiel.
Water 水 · EauWatchMurray–Darling recovery re-funded in 2023, yet the final volumes and the driest scenarios remain unresolved.2023 年墨累-达令流域回水计划重新拨款，但最终水量与最干情景仍未解决。Le plan Murray-Darling refinancé en 2023 ; les volumes finaux restent ouverts.
Energy 能源 · ÉnergieBehindGeneration is arriving; transmission, firming and social licence are the bottleneck for 82% by 2030.发电在到位，输电、调峰与社会许可才是 2030 年 82% 的瓶颈。La production arrive ; le transport et l'acceptabilité freinent les 82 %.
Waste 废弃物 · DéchetsOn trackAround 63% resource recovery; export bans pushed plastic, paper and tyre reprocessing onshore.资源回收率约 63%；出口禁令把塑料、纸与轮胎再加工留在国内。≈63 % de valorisation ; les interdictions d'export ont rapatrié le recyclage.
Materials 材料 · MatériauxOn trackRoughly half of world lithium supply; the 2035 test is refining and green iron, not digging.约占全球锂供应一半；2035 年的考题是精炼与绿色铁，而非采矿。La moitié du lithium mondial ; l'enjeu 2035 est le raffinage, pas l'extraction.
Population 人口 · PopulationWatchFast migration-led growth into cities where heat, housing and water limits already bite.移民驱动的快速增长涌入城市，而高温、住房与水资源限制已开始显现。Croissance migratoire vers des villes déjà limitées par chaleur et logement.
Nature 自然 · NatureBehind"Poor and deteriorating" in the 2021 State of the Environment report; five mass reef bleachings since 2016.2021 年国家环境报告评为「差且恶化」；2016 年以来大堡礁五次大规模白化。« Mauvais et en déclin » (rapport 2021) ; cinq blanchissements massifs.
AI 人工智能 · IAWatchCheap solar plus empty land could make the country a compute exporter; grid rules decide whether it does.廉价光伏加广袤土地可让澳洲成为算力出口国，成败取决于电网规则。Solaire bon marché et espace : exporter du calcul, si le réseau le permet.
Agriculture 农业 · AgricultureWatchA carbon-neutral-by-2030 ambition in red meat, run against drought cycles that reset the ledger.红肉产业提出 2030 年碳中和目标，却要面对不断重置账本的干旱周期。Objectif viande neutre en 2030, face à des cycles de sécheresse.
Industry 产业 · IndustrieBehindStill a top LNG and coal exporter; exported emissions dwarf everything measured domestically.仍是液化天然气与煤炭出口大国；出口排放远超国内统计口径。Toujours grand exportateur de GNL et charbon ; les émissions exportées dominent.
2026What good looks like now

Big-battery and transmission approvals outpacing coal retirements; a reef summer without mass bleaching; a nature law that actually passes.

大型电池与输电审批快于煤电退役；珊瑚礁度过一个无大规模白化的夏天；自然保护立法真正通过。

Batteries et lignes approuvées plus vite que les fermetures de charbon ; un été sans blanchissement.

2026–2035On track / behind

On track: rooftop and utility solar, storage, critical-mineral volumes, recycling. Behind: transmission pace, threatened species, fossil exports, reef trajectory.

在轨：屋顶与集中式光伏、储能、关键矿产产量、回收。落后：输电进度、受威胁物种、化石出口、珊瑚礁走向。

En voie : solaire, stockage, minéraux, recyclage. En retard : réseau, espèces, exportations fossiles.

2035–2050The long question

Whether green iron, refined minerals and exported clean energy replace coal and LNG revenue before the demand for them fades.

在需求消退之前，绿色铁、精炼矿产与清洁能源出口能否接替煤炭与 LNG 的收入？

Fer vert et énergie propre remplaceront-ils les revenus fossiles à temps ?

Landing 040.0° · equatorEast Africa

Kenya

肯尼亚 · Kenya

A grid already almost fully renewable, a median age of about twenty, and a climate that swings from four failed rains to floods.

Population≈56m人口 · median age ≈20 · ~85m by 2050
Carbon≈0.4 tCO₂ per person · NDC −32% vs BAU by 2030
Power≈90% cleangeothermal ≈950 MW · Olkaria is Africa's largest
Water<600 m³per person a year — chronically water-stressed

Kenya is the counter-example to the idea that clean power is a rich country's luxury: geothermal steam from the Rift Valley, hydro, wind at Lake Turkana and solar together supply the large majority of its electricity, and access has climbed past three-quarters of households. The constraint is not carbon — it is water, rain-fed farming and finance. The 2020–2023 drought was the worst in four decades, 2024 brought deadly floods, and most of the country's climate plan is explicitly conditional on international funding.

肯尼亚证明清洁电力不是富国的奢侈品：裂谷地热、水电、图尔卡纳湖风电与光伏共同供应绝大部分电力，通电率已超过四分之三家庭。真正的约束不是碳，而是水、雨养农业与资金。2020–2023 年是四十年来最严重干旱，2024 年又发生致命洪水，而国家气候计划的大部分明确依赖国际资金。

Le Kenya montre qu'une électricité propre n'est pas un luxe : géothermie du Rift, hydro, éolien de Turkana. La contrainte est l'eau et le financement.

“Here the transition question inverts: not how to clean the power, but how to build an economy fast enough to use it.” 这里的转型问题是反向的：不是如何让电力变清洁，而是如何足够快地建起用得上这些电的经济。 Ici la question s'inverse : non pas nettoyer l'électricité, mais construire l'économie qui la consomme.
Carbon 碳 · CarboneOn trackEmissions per person are a fraction of the OECD average; land use, not energy, dominates the inventory.人均排放远低于 OECD 平均；清单中主导项是土地利用而非能源。Émissions par habitant très faibles ; l'usage des terres domine l'inventaire.
Water 水 · EauBehindUnder 600 m³ per person; drought 2020–23, floods 2024, and Nairobi still rations supply.人均不足 600 立方米；2020–23 干旱、2024 洪水，内罗毕仍在限量供水。Moins de 600 m³/habitant ; sécheresse puis inondations, rationnement à Nairobi.
Energy 能源 · ÉnergieOn trackAround 90% renewable generation and rising access; the next step is reliability and industrial-scale demand.发电约 90% 可再生、通电率上升；下一步是可靠性与工业级用电需求。≈90 % renouvelable, accès en hausse ; reste la fiabilité et la demande.
Waste 废弃物 · DéchetsWatchDandora dumpsite is still open, but the 2017 bag ban and new producer-responsibility rules lead the region.丹多拉垃圾场仍在运行，但 2017 年禁塑袋与新生产者责任制度在区域内领先。La décharge de Dandora persiste ; l'interdiction des sacs fait référence.
Materials 材料 · MatériauxWatchCement and steel demand climb with urban growth; recovery is largely informal and under-counted.随城市增长，水泥与钢材需求上升；回收多为非正规且统计不足。Ciment et acier croissent ; la récupération reste informelle et mal mesurée.
Population 人口 · PopulationWatchRoughly 85m by 2050; whether the youth bulge is a dividend is being decided in this decade's schools and grids.2050 年约 8,500 万；青年红利成败，取决于这十年的学校与电网。≈85 M en 2050 ; le dividende jeunesse se décide dès maintenant.
Nature 自然 · NatureWatchForest cover near 9% moving toward a 10% goal and 15 billion trees by 2032; wildlife underpins ~10% of GDP.森林覆盖率约 9%，目标 10%，2032 年种 150 亿棵树；野生动物支撑约 10% GDP。≈9 % de couvert forestier vers 10 % ; la faune porte ~10 % du PIB.
AI 人工智能 · IAOn trackA national AI strategy for 2025–2030 and a geothermal-powered data-centre project near Olkaria.2025–2030 国家 AI 战略，并在奥尔卡里亚附近建设地热供电数据中心。Stratégie nationale IA 2025-2030 et data center alimenté par la géothermie.
Agriculture 农业 · AgricultureBehindAbout a fifth of GDP and much of employment, still mostly rain-fed — the climate risk sits with smallholders.约占 GDP 五分之一与大量就业，仍以雨养为主——气候风险压在小农身上。≈20 % du PIB, surtout pluvial : le risque climatique pèse sur les petits exploitants.
Industry 产业 · IndustrieWatchManufacturing stuck near 7–8% of GDP; the opening is clean-powered processing rather than volume.制造业长期停在 GDP 的 7–8%；机会在清洁电力驱动的加工，而非规模量产。Industrie autour de 7–8 % du PIB ; l'ouverture est la transformation propre.
2026What good looks like now

New geothermal wells online, electricity access past 80%, irrigation and water storage projects reaching farmers instead of announcements.

新的地热井投产、通电率超过 80%、灌溉与蓄水项目真正落到农户，而不是停留在发布会。

Nouveaux puits géothermiques, accès au-delà de 80 %, irrigation qui atteint les fermes.

2026–2035On track / behind

On track: clean generation, electricity access, digital and AI policy, tree planting. Behind: water security, irrigated area, waste infrastructure, industrial value-add.

在轨：清洁发电、通电率、数字与 AI 政策、植树。落后：水安全、灌溉面积、废弃物设施、工业增值。

En voie : électricité propre, accès, IA, reboisement. En retard : eau, irrigation, déchets, industrie.

2035–2050The long question

Can 85 million people in a water-stressed equatorial economy grow into their clean grid — and export processed goods and compute rather than raw crops?

在缺水的赤道经济体里，8,500 万人能否成长为用得起清洁电网的经济，并出口加工品与算力，而不是原料作物？

85 M d'habitants sous stress hydrique : exporter des produits transformés et du calcul, pas des matières brutes ?

Edges in the graph · 图谱中的连线 · Arêtes

The four landings are already connected. 这四处并非四个孤岛，它们本来就连在一起。 Ces quatre pays ne sont pas quatre îles.

A country page read alone hides the most useful information. These are the edges we keep live — each one a place where a decision in one landing changes the numbers in another.

单独读一个国家，会漏掉最有用的信息。以下是我们持续维护的连线：每一条都意味着，一个国家的决定会改变另一个国家的数字。

Lues séparément, les pages cachent l'essentiel. Voici les arêtes que nous maintenons vivantes.

  • Kenya → Netherlands

    Cut flowers and vegetables fly from Naivasha and Nairobi into Dutch auctions and onward across Europe — one basin's water, priced in another continent's supermarket. 纳瓦沙与内罗毕的鲜花蔬菜飞往荷兰拍卖市场再分销全欧：一个流域的水，被另一个大洲的超市定价。 Fleurs et légumes du Rift vers les enchères néerlandaises : l'eau d'un bassin, le prix d'un autre continent.

  • Australia → Mexico

    Australian lithium and refined battery material feed North American EV assembly; Mexico's factory boom is partly an Australian mining question. 澳洲锂与电池材料供给北美电动车装配；墨西哥的工厂热潮，一部分是澳洲矿业问题。 Le lithium australien alimente l'assemblage nord-américain de VE.

  • Netherlands → Australia

    Delta-style adaptation engineering and port hydrogen corridors travel south; Rotterdam wants the green molecules Australian sun could make. 三角洲式适应工程与港口氢走廊南下：鹿特丹想要澳洲阳光可以生产的绿色分子。 L'ingénierie Delta et les corridors hydrogène portuaires voyagent vers le sud.

  • Kenya → Global AI

    Baseload geothermal is a rare thing to offer a data centre. Where clean firm power exists, compute may relocate to it rather than the reverse. 地热基载电力对数据中心极为稀缺。有清洁稳定电力的地方，算力可能反过来迁移过去。 La géothermie en base est rare : le calcul peut se déplacer vers l'énergie propre.

  • Mexico ↔ Australia

    Both are water-stressed mineral and food exporters in a warming subtropics; their drought years increasingly rhyme through commodity prices. 两国都是缺水的矿产与粮食出口国，处在变暖的亚热带；干旱年份正通过商品价格互相呼应。 Deux exportateurs en stress hydrique : leurs sécheresses se répondent par les prix.

  • Netherlands ↔ Kenya

    Dutch nitrogen limits, Kenyan fertiliser subsidies: the same nutrient cycle read from the surplus end and the deficit end. 荷兰限氮，肯尼亚补贴化肥：同一个养分循环，一头是过剩，一头是短缺。 Azote en excès aux Pays-Bas, en déficit au Kenya : un même cycle, deux extrémités.

The Earth is a living system, and it is changing. Say hi. Understanding is how we choose where to focus.

地球是一个活的系统，而且正在变化。打个招呼吧。当你读到某一句，发现「我以前没想到过」——这就是我们一起在 benchmark，也是一种校准。理解，是聚焦大机会的前提。

La Terre est un système vivant, et il change. Dites bonjour. Comprendre, c'est choisir où porter l'attention — comme une seule Terre.

Calibration note · 校准 · Note de calibrage

Where we land next · 下一批落地 · Prochaines étapes

Seven candidates. Four seats. 七个候选，四个名额——尽量分布在不同大洲，保持多元性。 Sept candidats, quatre places — sur des continents différents.

Chosen for continental spread and for the systems they would add to the graph: a tropical forest-carbon giant, an archipelago, a coal-heavy manufacturer, a desert energy exporter, a mineral corridor, an ageing high-tech economy, and a Pacific frontline. The four marked below are the ones we would land first.

候选依据是大洲分布，以及它们能给图谱补上的系统：热带森林碳汇大国、群岛国家、以煤为主的制造业大国、沙漠能源出口国、矿产走廊、老龄化高科技经济体、太平洋前线。下面标注的四个，是我们建议先落地的。

Choisis pour la diversité continentale et les systèmes qu'ils ajoutent au graphe. Les quatre marqués seraient nos premiers atterrissages.

South America

Brazil

巴西 · Brésil

Amazon carbon and deforestation swings, ~85% clean electricity, industrial agriculture at global scale.亚马逊碳与森林砍伐的波动、约 85% 清洁电力、全球规模的工业化农业。Carbone amazonien, électricité déjà propre, agro-industrie mondiale.

Recommended next
Southeast Asia

Indonesia

印度尼西亚 · Indonésie

17,000 islands, nickel for batteries, coal for power, peatland carbon, a capital city being moved.一万七千座岛、电池镍矿、燃煤电力、泥炭地碳汇，以及一座正在搬迁的首都。Nickel, charbon, tourbières et une capitale déplacée.

Recommended next
North Africa

Morocco

摩洛哥 · Maroc

Desert solar and wind aimed at export, severe multi-year drought, desalination as national infrastructure.面向出口的沙漠风光、连续多年严重干旱、把海水淡化当作国家基础设施。Solaire d'export, sécheresse pluriannuelle, dessalement d'État.

Recommended next
East Asia

Japan

日本 · Japon

A shrinking, ageing high-tech economy, import-dependent energy, world-class material recovery.人口收缩老龄化的高科技经济体、高度依赖进口的能源、世界级的资源回收。Économie vieillissante, énergie importée, recyclage exemplaire.

Recommended next
South Asia

India

印度 · Inde

The largest single swing factor in global energy and water demand between now and 2050.从现在到 2050 年，全球能源与水需求最大的单一变量。Le plus grand facteur d'incertitude énergétique d'ici 2050.

Andes / South America

Chile

智利 · Chili

Copper, lithium and green hydrogen against the Atacama's water, plus a long megadrought.铜、锂与绿氢，对抗阿塔卡马的缺水与长期大干旱。Cuivre, lithium, hydrogène vert face à la mégasécheresse.

Pacific

Fiji & Pacific SIDS

斐济与太平洋岛国 · Fidji

The frontline of sea level, adaptation finance and loss-and-damage — small emitters, first impacts.海平面、适应资金与损失损害的前线：排放极小，冲击最先到来。Première ligne : montée des eaux et pertes et préjudices.

This page is designed to be re-landed. Each landing keeps its sources, so the next reading can show what moved rather than starting again. 这一页是为「再次落地」而设计的。每次落地都保留来源，下一次阅读能直接看出什么变了，而不必从零开始。 Cette page est faite pour être ré-atterrie : les sources restent, la prochaine lecture montre ce qui a bougé.

Living knowledge graph · 活的知识图谱

References & deep dives · 来源与深潜入口 · Sources

Everything above starts here. 38 个公开来源，均为可点开的原始入口，供继续深潜。 38 sources ouvertes pour aller plus loin.

Global frame 全球框架

  1. IPCC AR6 Synthesis Reportphysical basis, risk, pathways
  2. Copernicus Climate Change Servicetemperature, sea, ice records
  3. Global Carbon Projectannual carbon budget by country
  4. IEA Data & Statisticsenergy balances, country profiles
  5. Ember Electricity Datamonthly power mix by country
  6. IRENA Statisticsrenewable capacity time series
  7. Our World in Data — Energylong series, per-capita views
  8. UN World Population Prospects2050 population scenarios
  9. WRI Aqueductwater stress mapping
  10. UNFCCC NDC Registryevery national pledge, as filed
  11. Climate Action Trackerindependent target assessment
  12. Global Forest Watchannual forest loss by country
  13. FAOSTATagriculture, land, fertiliser
  14. IUCN Red Listspecies status
  15. World Bank Open Dataeconomy, access, GDP shares
  16. UNEP Resourcesemissions gap, waste, materials

Netherlands 荷兰

  1. CBS Statistics Netherlandsemissions, energy, population
  2. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyClimate & Energy Outlook (KEV)
  3. Delta Programmeflood safety & freshwater to 2050
  4. Netbeheer Nederlandgrid congestion maps
  5. Eurostatcircular material use rate, waste
  6. Rijksoverheid — climate policynational targets, nitrogen approach
  7. Royal FloraHollandthe flower trade edge to Kenya

Mexico 墨西哥

  1. INEGIpopulation, industry, environment
  2. CONAGUAreservoirs, aquifers, withdrawals
  3. SENERpower sector plan & capacity build
  4. SEMARNATemissions inventory, forests, waste
  5. CAT — Mexico2030 pledge assessment
  6. CONABIOmegadiversity & ecosystem data
  7. IEA — Mexicoenergy balance & policy tracker

Australia 澳大利亚

  1. National Greenhouse Accountsquarterly emissions vs 2005
  2. AEMO Integrated System Plangrid, transmission, 2050 scenarios
  3. State of the Environment"poor and deteriorating" baseline
  4. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authoritybleaching & reef health updates
  5. Murray–Darling Basin Authoritywater recovery progress
  6. Australian Bureau of Statisticspopulation & migration
  7. Geoscience Australia — critical mineralslithium and refining pipeline

Kenya 肯尼亚

  1. Kenya National Bureau of Statisticspopulation, GDP shares, agriculture
  2. EPRAgeneration mix & access statistics
  3. KenGenOlkaria geothermal capacity
  4. Ministry of Environment & Climate ChangeNDC, forest cover, tree programme
  5. NEMA Kenyawaste rules and producer responsibility
  6. Ministry of ICT & Digital EconomyNational AI Strategy 2025–2030
  7. World Bank — Kenyadrought, floods, economic updates