Four countries. Ten domains. Three horizons.
四个国家 · 十个观测域 · 三段时间视野
Quatre pays. Dix domaines. Trois horizons.
This is not a score and not an investment report. It is a method for looking: land on a region, read what is already built and measured in 2026, ask what is on track for 2026–2035, and what the structure of 2035–2050 already decides. Then come back and land again. The Earth is a living system — understanding is how attention finds the big openings.
A shared benchmark, in three languages — a way to calibrate, not to rank.
We watch from above, then land. Above: satellite, statistical and energy datasets that cover every country the same way. Landing: the specific plants, laws, deltas, aquifers and demographics that make a place itself. If a line here tells you something you had not thought about before, that is the point — that is the calibration.
先观测，再落地。观测层用同一套卫星、统计与能源数据看待每个国家；落地层看的是具体的电站、法规、三角洲、地下水与人口结构。如果这里有一行让你觉得“我以前没想到”，那就是我们一起在 benchmark，也是一种校准。地球在变，理解才是聚焦机会的前提。
Observer d'abord, atterrir ensuite. En altitude : des jeux de données satellitaires, statistiques et énergétiques comparables pour tous les pays. À l'atterrissage : les centrales, les lois, les deltas, les nappes et la démographie qui font la singularité d'un lieu. Ni notation, ni recommandation d'investissement — un cadre de lecture, révisable.
The same lens is carried to every landing, so that places become comparable without becoming interchangeable.
One country, read three times over.
The baseline. What is actually built, measured, legislated and operating — not announced. This is where we say hi.
Ce qui est construit et mesuré, non ce qui est annoncé.
The decade of trajectories: build rates, grid queues, restarts, delivery of the plans already signed. On track, or behind.
Rythmes de construction, files d'attente réseau, exécution.
What is slow and near-irreversible: demography, aquifers, deltas, land, material stocks, institutions.
Démographie, nappes, deltas, sols, stocks de matières.
A hydrocarbon state deliberately rebuilding its own demand side: gigawatt-scale solar in the world's best resource, the largest single green-hydrogen bet on Earth, and a water system that is essentially desalination powered by fuel. The pace of solar is real; the share of clean electricity is still small.
在全球最好的光照资源上以吉瓦级速度建太阳能，同时押注全球最大的绿氢项目；但清洁电力占比仍低，水系统本质上是“用能源换水”。2030 年 50% 可再生电力目标要求建设速度再翻数倍。
Un État pétrolier qui reconstruit sa demande intérieure : solaire à l'échelle du gigawatt, pari mondial sur l'hydrogène vert, et une eau qui est d'abord une question d'énergie. Le rythme est réel, la part d'électricité propre reste faible.
Utility solar has moved from pilot to programme: Sudair (1.5 GW) and Shuaibah (2.6 GW) are among the largest plants ever built, with tens of gigawatts under contract at some of the lowest tariffs ever tendered.
Renewables remain a low single-digit share of generation while demand grows with cooling and industry. Reaching ~50% of power by 2030 implies sustaining a build rate several times the current one, plus storage and transmission.
The largest desalination producer on the planet, supplying most municipal drinking water; agriculture still takes the bulk of total withdrawals and fossil aquifers have been drawn down. The shift to solar-powered reverse osmosis is the decisive move.
NEOM's green hydrogen and ammonia complex, plus CO₂ capture hubs on the Gulf coast, are attempts to export molecules instead of barrels. Timelines and offtake, not engineering, are the risk.
The overwhelming majority of municipal waste still goes to landfill; the national waste authority targets diverting most of it by 2035. Almost the entire recycling and organics system has yet to be built.
The Saudi Green Initiative pledges billions of trees and 30% of land and sea protected by 2030. Survival rates and water demand of plantings in arid land are the honest test — a case for satellite verification.
A young, ~85% urban population and heavy state investment in compute and national AI capacity. The next question is whether new data centres are built on clean power and water-lean cooling.
“No country desalinates more seawater. Saudi water policy is, in the end, an energy policy.”
没有哪个国家海水淡化量比沙特更大——沙特的水政策，归根结底是能源政策。
Aucun pays ne dessale davantage : la politique de l'eau saoudienne est une politique de l'énergie.
The only landing here where emissions and population are both falling. Japan's inventory is at its lowest since 1990, its 2035 target is one of the more ambitious among industrial economies — and its offshore wind pipeline is stumbling while coal keeps roughly a third of the grid.
这是本次唯一“排放与人口同时下降”的国家。温室气体已降至 1990 年以来最低，2035 年减排 60% 的目标相当进取；但海上风电项目接连受挫，煤电仍占约三分之一，脱碳发生在一个不断收缩的基数之上。
Le seul pays de cette série où émissions et population reculent ensemble. Inventaire au plus bas depuis 1990, cible 2035 ambitieuse — mais l'éolien en mer patine et le charbon tient encore près d'un tiers du réseau.
Greenhouse gas emissions have fallen roughly a quarter from their 2013 peak, the lowest on record since inventories began, driven by efficiency, renewables and nuclear restarts.
The 7th Strategic Energy Plan (2025) points to 40–50% renewables and about 20% nuclear by 2040. Fourteen reactors have returned to service; social consent and grid capacity remain the real constraint.
Auction rounds have been awarded, but cost inflation led a major developer to abandon three early projects in 2025. The 10 GW-by-2030 ambition now looks like a 2030s story.
Around 30% of electricity is still coal-fired with no phase-out date; hydrogen and ammonia co-firing is offered as the bridge, and is the most disputed line in Japanese climate policy.
A resource-autonomy and circular-economy strategy plus world-leading perovskite thin-film solar — a technology chosen precisely because Japan lacks flat land. Domestic compute programmes are scaling, and data-centre demand is now a grid-planning variable.
Japanese births fell below 700,000 for the first time and the population dropped by roughly 900,000 in a single year, with over 29% aged 65+. Infrastructure, water networks and farmland were all sized for a larger country.
Calorie self-sufficiency sits near 38% against a 45% goal; the average farmer is close to 70. The 2024–25 rice price shock showed how thin the buffer has become in a hotter climate.
Rainfall is abundant, but a large share of water mains is past its designed service life while record-hot summers repeat. Renewal capacity, not supply, is the issue.
“Japan lost about 900,000 people in one year. Here, decarbonisation happens on a shrinking base.”
日本一年减少约 90 万人口——在这里，减碳发生在一个不断缩小的基数上。
Le Japon a perdu près de 900 000 habitants en un an : la décarbonation s'y joue sur une base qui rétrécit.
A near-fully renewable grid, the largest hydropower plant in Africa now inaugurated, a national ban on importing petrol and diesel private cars — and, at the same time, roughly half the population without electricity and almost all households still cooking on biomass.
电网几乎全部来自可再生能源，非洲最大水电站已投运，并且成为全球首个禁止进口燃油私家车的国家；但仍有约一半人口没有电力，绝大多数家庭仍靠生物质炊事——清洁炊事是最大的健康与能源缺口。
Un réseau presque entièrement renouvelable, le plus grand barrage d'Afrique inauguré, l'interdiction d'importer des voitures à essence — et pourtant la moitié du pays sans électricité, la cuisson encore à la biomasse.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was inaugurated in September 2025 at 5,150 MW — Africa's largest — on a grid already dominated by hydropower, with growing wind and geothermal potential in the Rift Valley.
Since 2024 Ethiopia has barred imports of non-electric private cars — the first country in the world to do so — pairing an electric fleet with a hydro grid. Charging infrastructure and spare parts are the bottleneck.
Around half the population still lacks electricity access, and only a small fraction cooks with clean fuels. Household air pollution from biomass remains one of the country's largest health burdens.
Basic drinking water and safely managed sanitation coverage are among the lowest globally, and the Nile filling and operating rules with Egypt and Sudan remain unresolved — a hydro-diplomatic question, not only an engineering one.
The Green Legacy Initiative reports tens of billions of seedlings planted since 2019, an extraordinary mobilisation. Independent survival and canopy monitoring is exactly what earth observation is for.
Record coffee export earnings and a national wheat import-substitution push, on farming that is overwhelmingly rain-fed and drought-exposed. Irrigation, storage and soils decide the 2035 line.
Around 132 million people with a median age near 19, projected toward roughly 190 million by 2050. Much of Africa's mid-century story can be read in this one country's cities, schools and grids.
Addis Ababa hosts Africa's first waste-to-energy plant, while a national digital and AI institute is standing up. Power reliability, not talent, is the ceiling on compute here.
“Ethiopia banned importing petrol and diesel private cars — the first country on Earth to try it.”
埃塞俄比亚禁止进口燃油私家车——全球第一个这样做的国家。
L'Éthiopie a interdit l'importation des voitures à essence et diesel — une première mondiale.
The fastest solar surge the region has seen, the world's largest low-emission rice programme, and an electronics economy pulling in AI research — all balanced on a sinking delta and a grid where coal still set records.
东南亚最快的光伏爆发、全球最大的低排放水稻计划、以及不断吸引人工智能研发的电子制造经济——但这一切建立在一个正在下沉的三角洲之上，煤电用量仍在创新高，电网与输电成为最大瓶颈。
La plus forte poussée solaire de la région, le plus grand programme mondial de riz bas-carbone, une industrie électronique qui attire la recherche en IA — sur un delta qui s'affaisse et un réseau où le charbon bat des records.
Around 16 GW of solar was added in roughly three years — one of the fastest deployments anywhere — and new direct power purchase rules let factories buy clean electricity from generators directly.
Coal generation hit record levels in 2024 as demand grew around 10% a year, while curtailment and transmission queues hold back existing renewables. Concessional climate finance under the JETP has been slow to convert into projects.
The revised Power Development Plan 8 (2025) scales renewables, storage and LNG, and revives the Ninh Thuận nuclear project. Execution — permits, land, grid — is the whole story.
A programme to convert one million hectares of the Mekong Delta to high-quality, low-emission rice by 2030 — the largest attempt anywhere to cut methane from paddy at national scale, on record export volumes.
The Mekong Delta is subsiding from groundwater extraction faster in places than the sea is rising, with saline intrusion moving inland and upstream dams altering sediment. This delta grows about half of Vietnam's rice.
A 2024 national resolution put science, technology and digital transformation at the centre of policy, and global chip and AI firms have opened R&D centres. Clean power supply is now a condition of staying attractive.
Extended producer responsibility obligations began in 2024 alongside a marine plastic action plan. Informal collectors still do much of the actual recycling and are largely uncounted.
Fertility fell to about 1.91, a record low, with ageing arriving in the mid-2030s — the demographic window is closing. Hanoi has repeatedly ranked among the world's most polluted cities on winter mornings.
“Half of Vietnam's rice grows on a delta that is sinking faster than the sea is rising.”
越南一半的稻米，长在一个下沉速度快于海平面上升的三角洲上。
La moitié du riz vietnamien pousse sur un delta qui s'affaisse plus vite que la mer ne monte.
活的知识图谱 · un graphe de connaissances vivant. We do not land once. Each landing becomes a node linked to real-world sources, then is revisited when the world moves.
Comparable global datasets: emissions, electricity, water stress, forest cover, population.
One region, ten domains, three horizons. Specific plants, laws, deltas, aquifers.
Every claim carries a source you can open and go deeper into yourself.
Return when inventories, plans or datasets update. The verdicts are meant to change.
Open these to check, disagree, and go further — 参考来源 · sources et approfondissements. Figures above are read from these bodies and are approximate by design; always take the latest release as authoritative.
Four of these seven become the next landing — chosen for the questions they force open, not for size. 下一站候选 · Prochaines destinations possibles.
An already-clean grid beside the Amazon: forest carbon, biofuels and the after-life of a COP presidency in one landing.
Nickel for batteries, coal for power, peatlands that hold decades of emissions, and a capital being moved.
The largest single build-out of non-fossil capacity on Earth against extreme heat and deep groundwater depletion.
Africa's demographic centre of gravity: fuel subsidy reform, gas, and off-grid solar as the actual electrification path.
Lithium and copper for everyone else's transition, in one of the world's driest inhabited regions.
Solar and wind at export scale, phosphate for global food, and water scarcity tightening year on year.
A delta engineered for centuries, extreme food and nutrient density, and a hard national argument about limits.