Charge Without Carbon · 无碳之荷 Research benchmark · v2026.01 · 研究基准
A bilingual roadmap study · 中英双语路线图研究 · 2026 → 2050

Charge
without
carbon.

电池脱碳路线图：
从规模化，到闭环。

Batteries are the only technology asked to decarbonise transport, the grid and industry at once — while decarbonising themselves. This page is not an investment report. It is a scoreboard: what is genuinely on track, what is quietly off track, and where the raw materials are so you can go read them yourself.

电池是唯一被同时要求为交通、电网和工业减碳，并且还要为自己减碳的技术。本页不是投资报告，而是一张记分牌：哪些真正在轨道上，哪些正在悄悄脱轨，以及原始资料在哪里——你可以自己去读。

Now → 2026Cheap & dirty-ish便宜了，但还不够干净
2026 → 2035Scale & substitute规模化与材料替代
2035 → 2050Close the loop闭环与近零排放
Orientation

Why, what, how

为什么 · 是什么 · 怎么做

Three questions to hold before any number makes sense. Judgement comes from the framing, not from the decimal places.

Why

The battery is the bottleneck and the leak

为什么 —— 电池既是瓶颈，也是漏点

A battery pays back its manufacturing carbon within roughly 1–2 years of driving on an average grid, and far faster on a clean one. But as fleets scale into the tens of TWh, the making of cells becomes a material industrial emissions source of its own — dominated by mining, cathode/anode processing and the electricity burned in the cell plant.

在平均电网强度下，一块动力电池通常在 1–2 年的行驶里就能"还清"制造阶段的碳；电网越清洁，还得越快。但当装机量走向数十 TWh，"造电池"本身就变成一个可观的工业排放源——集中在采矿、正负极材料加工，以及电芯工厂消耗的电力。

What

Two numbers, not one

是什么 —— 要盯两个数，而不是一个

Cost per kWh has fallen dramatically (BloombergNEF's annual survey put volume-weighted pack prices near US$115/kWh in 2024). Carbon per kWh has not fallen at the same speed. Reported cradle-to-gate footprints still span roughly 40–120 kgCO₂e/kWh depending on chemistry, plant grid and boundary. Decarbonisation means bending the second curve as hard as the market bent the first.

度电成本已大幅下降（BNEF 年度调查显示 2024 年电池包加权均价约 115 美元/kWh），但度电碳足迹并没有以同样速度下降。根据化学体系、工厂电网与核算边界，摇篮到大门的足迹仍在约 40–120 kgCO₂e/kWh 区间。脱碳的意义，就是把第二条曲线压得和第一条一样陡。

How

Electrons first, then molecules, then loops

怎么做 —— 先电力，再材料，最后闭环

The sequence matters. Clean the factory's electricity (cheapest, fastest, often net-negative cost). Then change the molecules — LFP/LMFP, sodium-ion, less nickel and cobalt, low-carbon graphite. Then close the loop, because recycled cathode metals carry a fraction of virgin mining's footprint. Transparency (carbon-footprint rules, battery passports) is what makes all three auditable.

顺序很重要：先让工厂用上清洁电（最便宜、最快，往往是负成本）；再换分子——磷酸铁锂/磷酸锰铁锂、钠离子、减镍减钴、低碳石墨；最后闭环，因为再生金属的足迹远低于原生开采。而碳足迹规则与电池护照，是让这三件事可被审计的前提。

The roadmap

Two decades, two different jobs

两个十年，两件完全不同的事

2026–2035 is an industrial build-out problem. 2035–2050 is a materials-loop problem. Confusing the two is the most common strategic error in this sector.

2026—2035
Scale & substitute规模化与替代 · 把碳强度压下去
Factory power
Cell plants move to 24/7 or near-24/7 clean electricity via PPAs and siting.电芯工厂通过绿电采购协议与选址，转向接近全天候的清洁电力。这是单位减碳成本最低的一步。
Chemistry
LFP/LMFP consolidates as the volume default; sodium-ion takes stationary storage and entry mobility; nickel and cobalt intensity keeps falling.磷酸铁锂/磷酸锰铁锂成为主流默认；钠离子进入储能与入门级出行；镍、钴单位用量持续下降。
Anode
Graphite becomes the visible hotspot — synthetic graphite is energy- and coke-intensive, and supply is highly concentrated. Silicon blends and bio/low-carbon graphite routes get serious money.石墨成为显性痛点：人造石墨高耗能、依赖针状焦，供应高度集中。硅基掺混与低碳石墨路线开始获得实质投资。
Rules
EU Regulation 2023/1542 phases in: carbon-footprint declaration, then classes, then thresholds; digital battery passport from 2027; recycled-content duties from 2031.欧盟《电池法规》2023/1542 分阶段落地：碳足迹声明 → 分级 → 限值；2027 年起数字电池护照；2031 年起再生料含量强制要求。
Storage
Grid-scale storage becomes the fastest-growing battery demand line, changing what "a battery" is optimised for: cycles and calendar life, not energy density.电网侧储能成为增长最快的需求线，"好电池"的定义随之改变——循环寿命与日历寿命，而非能量密度。
Risk
Overcapacity and price war compress margins; several Western gigafactory projects fail or slip. Capital discipline, not ambition, becomes the differentiator.产能过剩与价格战压缩利润，多个西方超级工厂项目延期或失败。真正的分水岭是资本纪律，而不是雄心。
2035—2050
Close the loop闭环 · 从开采驱动走向回收驱动
Feedstock
The first large retirement wave of 2015–2025 EV packs arrives. Recycled lithium, nickel and cobalt shift from a rounding error to a structural share of supply.2015–2025 年装车的电池迎来首个大规模退役潮，再生锂、镍、钴从可忽略项变为供应的结构性组成部分。
Emissions
Best-in-class cradle-to-gate footprints target the sub-20 kgCO₂e/kWh range — achievable only with clean grids plus high recycled content plus low-carbon anode.领先水平的摇篮到大门足迹目标进入 20 kgCO₂e/kWh 以下——只有"清洁电网 + 高再生料 + 低碳负极"三者叠加才可能实现。
Second life
Repair, remanufacture and second-life stationary use become regulated, warrantied product lines rather than salvage.维修、再制造与梯次利用成为受监管、可质保的正式产品线，而不再是"处理废料"。
Equity
The unresolved question: whether mining-host and processing-host economies capture value and avoid becoming the disposal end of the loop.尚未解决的问题：矿产国与加工国能否留住价值，而不是成为闭环的"处置端"。
Metric
The industry's KPI migrates from $/kWh to kWh-delivered-per-kg-mined over the asset's whole life.行业核心指标从"每度电成本"迁移到"每公斤开采量在全生命周期内交付的度电数"。
The cheapest tonne of CO₂ in this industry is still the one you don't burn making the cell.

这个行业里最便宜的一吨二氧化碳，仍然是"造电芯时没有烧掉的那一吨"。

By region

The same curve, five different physics

同一条曲线，五种不同的现实条件

Grid carbon intensity, capital cost and industrial policy decide almost everything. Ratings below are a reading of published evidence, not a rating agency opinion.

China 中国

On track
  • Holds the majority of global cell, cathode, anode and refining capacity; CATL and BYD alone account for roughly half of global EV battery installations.
  • LFP dominance already lowers the average footprint per kWh versus high-nickel routes.
  • Decisive lever is the power mix at the plant gate — coal-heavy provincial grids remain the single biggest term in the equation.

中国掌握全球多数电芯、正负极与冶炼产能；宁德时代与比亚迪合计约占全球动力电池装机的一半。磷酸铁锂路线本身已拉低单位碳足迹，真正的变量是工厂所在省份的电力结构。

European Union 欧盟

Rules ahead of capacity
  • The world's most complete battery sustainability law: carbon-footprint declaration, due diligence, recycled content, digital passport.
  • Cleanest large grids for cell making (Nordics, France, Iberia) — a genuine structural advantage.
  • But domestic cell build-out has repeatedly underdelivered; regulation risks arriving before the factories do.

欧盟拥有全球最完整的电池可持续立法（碳足迹声明、尽职调查、再生料含量、数字护照），并具备北欧、法国、伊比利亚等清洁电网的结构性优势；但本土电芯产能屡次不达预期——规则可能比工厂先到。

North America 北美

Capital-rich, policy-volatile
  • Production credits (45X: up to US$35/kWh cell + US$10/kWh module) made domestic cells bankable almost overnight.
  • Deep recycling and midstream innovation base; strongest private climate-capital pool.
  • Policy reversibility is now the top risk factor in every model.

生产税收抵免（45X：电芯最高 35 美元/kWh、模组 10 美元/kWh）几乎在一夜之间让本土电芯具备可融资性；回收与中游创新基础深厚，私营气候资本池最强。当前最大风险是政策可逆性。

India & South-East Asia 印度与东南亚

Fastest new demand
  • Two- and three-wheeler electrification delivers more CO₂ abatement per kWh of battery than almost any car programme.
  • Indonesia holds the nickel midstream; its coal-fired captive power is the decisive carbon question for that value chain.
  • Storage tenders are scaling faster than most forecasts assumed.

两轮与三轮电动化的"每 kWh 电池减碳量"高于几乎任何乘用车项目；印尼掌握镍中游，其自备燃煤电力是该链条最关键的碳问题；储能招标规模的增长快于多数预测。

Africa & Latin America 非洲与拉美

Value at risk
  • Holds lithium, cobalt, copper, manganese and graphite reserves that the roadmap cannot be built without.
  • Clean-grid potential (hydro, solar) could make these the lowest-carbon refining locations on Earth.
  • The call-out: without local processing, the region exports the carbon-cheap material and imports the finished carbon cost.

这里拥有路线图无法绕开的锂、钴、铜、锰与石墨储量，并具备（水电、光伏）成为全球最低碳冶炼地的潜力。需要点名的是：若缺乏本地加工，该区域将输出低碳原料、进口高碳成品。

Japan & Korea 日本与韩国

Quality & chemistry depth
  • Deepest materials science bench: separators, electrolytes, precursors, solid-state programmes.
  • Domestic grid carbon intensity is the structural handicap; overseas siting is the practical answer.
  • Leads on long-life, high-reliability cells — a decarbonisation lever in itself.

在隔膜、电解液、前驱体与固态电池方面拥有最深厚的材料科学积累；本土电网碳强度是结构性劣势，海外建厂是现实解。长寿命、高可靠电芯本身就是一项减碳杠杆。

Where the new money is going

Emerging areas — and what "return" should mean

新兴投资方向，以及"回报"到底该怎么定义

Returns below are indicative ranges gathered from public disclosures and published analyses. They are context for judgement, not a forecast, and definitely not advice. The column that matters for "money for good" is the third one: carbon abated per unit of capital.

Area · 方向Reported economics · 已披露经济性Abatement leverage · 减碳杠杆
Clean power for cell plants (PPAs, siting)电芯工厂绿电采购与选址
Often net-negative cost — long-term PPAs frequently price below volatile industrial tariffs.
Highest. Manufacturing electricity is one of the largest single terms in cradle-to-gate footprint.
LFP / LMFP capacity outside China中国以外的磷酸铁锂/锰铁锂产能
Policy-dependent — viability in the US rests heavily on the 45X production credit.
High, but exposed to overcapacity and price compression. Bankability > ambition.
Sodium-ion (storage + entry mobility)钠离子（储能与入门出行）
Pre-bankable — commercial products announced, cost curve unproven at TWh scale.
Strategic: removes lithium and cobalt from a large slice of demand. Watch cycle life, not headline Wh/kg.
Low-carbon anode: silicon, bio-graphite, non-coke routes低碳负极：硅基、生物质石墨、非焦路线
Under-funded relative to impact — the least-invested large hotspot in the chain.
Very high per dollar. Synthetic graphite is energy-intensive and geographically concentrated.
Recycling, black mass and closed-loop cathode回收、黑粉与闭环正极
Currently margin-squeezed — depressed lithium and nickel prices broke several business models before scale arrived.
Decisive after 2035; structurally under-built today. This is the clearest "call-out" line on the page.
Grid-scale storage assets电网侧储能资产
The fastest-compounding demand line; revenue stacking (energy arbitrage, capacity, ancillary) varies enormously by market.
High where it displaces gas peakers or enables curtailed renewables; near zero where it shifts coal.
Traceability, MRV and battery passport software溯源、可测量报告核查与电池护照软件
Small capital, regulatory tailwind — mandated in the EU from 2027.
Indirect but enabling: nothing else on this list is verifiable without it.
Repair, refurbishment and second life维修、再制造与梯次利用
Fragmented, early — blocked more by warranty, liability and data access than by technology.
High: extending life is mathematically the same as reducing embodied carbon per kWh delivered.
How to read the ROI question honestly. Financial return and climate return diverge in this sector more than in almost any other. A cell plant on a coal grid can be highly profitable and climate-neutralish at best; a low-carbon anode start-up can be climate-decisive and commercially fragile. The benchmark worth using is tonnes CO₂e avoided per million invested, over asset life, held alongside conventional returns — never instead of them.
如何诚实地看待回报问题。在这个行业，财务回报与气候回报的背离程度高于几乎任何其他行业：建在煤电网上的电芯厂可能非常赚钱、却几乎没有气候收益；低碳负极初创可能决定成败、却商业脆弱。值得使用的基准是"每百万投资在资产全生命周期内避免的二氧化碳当量吨数"，与传统财务指标并列——而不是取而代之。
Who

Who is putting money behind it, and who is actually buying

谁在投钱，谁真正在买单，谁在盯着看

Named below are organisations with public, documented positions in this value chain. Presence on this list is a description of activity, not an endorsement — open the primary sources at the bottom and judge for yourself.

Capital pointed at impact面向影响力的资本

  • Breakthrough EnergyPatient capital for hard-to-fund battery chemistry, materials and process innovation.
  • Just Climate / Generation IMExplicitly targets high-abatement, capital-heavy industrial assets rather than software returns.
  • TPG Rise ClimateLarge-scale climate private equity across storage, materials and electrification.
  • Brookfield transition strategiesInfrastructure-scale money for storage and clean industrial power.
  • Temasek & Asian sovereign investorsLong-horizon holders across cells, materials and mobility.
  • EIB · IFC · development financeThe de-risking layer that decides whether refining happens in the resource country or not.

Leading adopters领先采纳者

  • CATLScale leader; LFP and sodium-ion product lines, and a declared zero-carbon factory programme.
  • BYDVertical integration from cell to vehicle; blade LFP as a mass-market default.
  • TeslaPublishes impact and lifecycle data; drove 4680 and structural-pack manufacturing thinking.
  • ApplePushed supplier clean-electricity commitments upstream into cell and materials suppliers.
  • Mercedes-Benz · Volvo · PolestarAmong the first to publish per-vehicle battery carbon footprints and supplier clean-power clauses.
  • Utilities and hyperscalersNow the volume buyers of storage; their procurement specs are becoming de facto standards.

Who selected it and watches closely谁在选择并高度关注

  • European CommissionMade battery carbon footprint a market-access condition — the strongest single signal in the system.
  • Global Battery AllianceBattery Passport pilots; the closest thing to a shared disclosure grammar.
  • IEAThe reference dataset for demand, price and deployment — the numbers most others quote.
  • US DOE & national labsArgonne's GREET/EverBatt underpins most lifecycle numbers in circulation.
  • Science Based Targets initiativeWhere automaker and utility Scope 3 claims get tested.
  • Fleet and mining buyersUnderrated: heavy-duty and mine-haulage electrification quietly sets durability requirements.
The big five

Five levers, in order of carbon leverage

五大杠杆，按减碳杠杆大小排序

Ordered deliberately. If an organisation claims a battery sustainability strategy and cannot answer for lever 01, the rest is decoration.

01

Clean electrons at the factory gate工厂门口的清洁电力

Cell and cathode manufacturing is electricity-hungry. Moving that load to genuinely additional clean power — hourly-matched where possible — is the fastest, cheapest and most auditable reduction available. It is also the one most often reported with creative accounting.

电芯与正极制造是耗电大户。把这部分负荷转向真正"额外性"的清洁电力（尽可能做到逐小时匹配），是当前最快、最便宜、最可审计的减排手段——也是最常被"创造性核算"包装的一项。

Test questionIs the clean power hourly-matched and additional, or an annual certificate purchase?
02

Chemistry and material intensity化学体系与材料强度

LFP and LMFP cut nickel and cobalt exposure. Sodium-ion removes lithium from a slice of demand. Thrifting, higher yields and lower scrap rates quietly deliver as much as headline chemistry switches. Fit the chemistry to the duty cycle rather than to the press release.

磷酸铁锂与锰铁锂降低镍钴依赖；钠离子把一部分需求从锂中移除。而"减量设计、提高良率、降低报废"这些不上新闻的动作，减碳效果常常不亚于换体系。化学路线要匹配工况，而不是匹配新闻稿。

Test questionWhat is the scrap rate at the plant, and is it in the footprint?
03

The material loop — recycling and recovered content材料闭环：回收与再生料

Recovered lithium, nickel and cobalt carry a fraction of virgin mining and refining's footprint. The EU has made recycled content a legal duty from the 2030s. The uncomfortable truth is that recycling capacity and economics are currently behind the curve, not ahead of it.

再生锂、镍、钴的碳足迹远低于原生开采与冶炼；欧盟已把再生料含量写成 2030 年代的法定义务。但不舒服的事实是：目前回收产能与经济性是落后于曲线的，而非领先。

Test questionWhere does the black mass physically go, and who verifies the recovery rate?
04

Verified transparency可验证的透明度

Carbon-footprint declaration rules, digital battery passports and third-party audit turn claims into data. Divergent methodologies across regions remain the biggest practical obstacle: the same cell can carry very different published footprints under different boundaries.

碳足迹声明规则、数字电池护照与第三方审计，把"说法"变成"数据"。各地区方法学不统一仍是最大现实障碍：同一颗电芯，在不同边界下可以给出差异很大的公开足迹。

Test questionWhich methodology, which boundary, which verifier — stated on the same page as the number?
05

Longevity and utilisation寿命与利用率

A cell that lasts twice as long halves its embodied carbon per kWh delivered, without changing a single material. Repairability, state-of-health data access, second life and simply using installed capacity harder are the most under-priced levers in the whole system.

寿命翻倍，意味着每交付一度电所承载的隐含碳减半——一种材料都不用换。可维修性、健康状态数据开放、梯次利用，以及单纯"把已装机容量用得更满"，是整个体系中被严重低估的杠杆。

Test questionIs the metric $/kWh, or kWh delivered per kg of material mined?
The scoreboard

On track / needs calling out

在轨道上 / 需要被点名

The point of a benchmark is to say the second half out loud.

On track在轨道上

  1. Cost. Pack prices have fallen far faster than almost any published forecast of the last decade. 成本：电池包价格的下降速度，超过过去十年几乎所有公开预测。
  2. Chemistry shift. LFP has moved from "cheap compromise" to the volume default in large markets, cutting cobalt and nickel exposure. 体系切换：磷酸铁锂已从"廉价妥协"变为大市场的主流默认，降低了钴镍依赖。
  3. Storage deployment. Grid-scale battery build-out has repeatedly beaten forecasts, and is now a demand line in its own right. 储能部署：电网侧储能建设持续超预期，已成为独立的需求主线。
  4. Regulation. The EU has produced a workable, phased, auditable framework — carbon footprint, due diligence, recycled content, passport. 监管：欧盟给出了可执行、分阶段、可审计的框架——碳足迹、尽职调查、再生料含量、电池护照。
  5. Clean-power procurement. Leading manufacturers now treat plant electricity as a design variable, not an operating cost. 绿电采购：领先制造商已把工厂用电当作设计变量，而不只是运营成本。

Needs calling out需要被点名

  1. Recycling economics broke before recycling scaled. Depressed metal prices took out business models the 2035 roadmap depends on. 回收经济性在规模化之前就崩了：金属价格低迷击垮了 2035 路线图所依赖的商业模式。
  2. Anode and graphite are the forgotten hotspot — high energy intensity, extreme supply concentration, comparatively little capital. 负极与石墨是被遗忘的热点：高能耗、供应极度集中、获得的资本却相对稀少。
  3. Western gigafactory attrition. Several flagship projects have slipped or failed; announced capacity is not delivered capacity. 西方超级工厂的折损：多个旗舰项目延期或失败——宣布的产能不等于交付的产能。
  4. Methodology divergence. Different carbon-accounting boundaries make published footprints non-comparable, and that gap is being used. 方法学分歧：不同核算边界让公开足迹无法横向比较，而这个空隙正在被利用。
  5. Upstream justice. Community consent, water use and tailings in mining regions are still handled as reputational risk rather than as part of the carbon-and-value equation. 上游公正：采矿地区的社区同意、用水与尾矿，仍被当作声誉风险处理，而不是碳与价值方程的一部分。
  6. Grid connection queues. In several markets, interconnection delay — not battery cost — is now the binding constraint on storage. 并网排队：在多个市场，约束储能的已不是电池成本，而是并网延迟。
  7. Second-life liability. Warranty, data access and safety responsibility remain unresolved, and they are what actually block reuse. 梯次利用责任：质保、数据访问与安全责任归属仍未厘清，这才是真正阻碍复用的因素。
It is about batteries, but more than that. The battery is a rehearsal. Every argument here — clean power at the factory, material loops, verified disclosure, longevity over throughput — is the same argument steel, cement, ammonia and chips will have next. Whichever discipline the battery sector settles on will be inherited by all of them.
这关于电池，但不止于电池。电池是一次彩排。这里的每一条论证——工厂绿电、材料闭环、可验证披露、以寿命而非吞吐为目标——钢铁、水泥、合成氨与芯片行业接下来都会重来一遍。电池行业最终确立的纪律，会被它们全部继承。
Sources · 资料来源

Open the raw materials

打开原始资料，自己判断

Every claim above should be checkable. These are the primary publishers behind the figures and rules cited — go to the current edition of each, because the numbers in this field move every year.

Data & outlooks · 数据与展望

  1. IEA — Global EV OutlookEV and battery demand, chemistry share, regional deployment.
  2. IEA — Batteries and Secure Energy TransitionsThe reference framing for battery demand across transport and grid.
  3. IEA — Global Critical Minerals OutlookLithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite supply, prices and concentration.
  4. IEA — World Energy InvestmentAnnual capital flows, including battery storage investment.
  5. IEA — Energy Technology PerspectivesClean-tech manufacturing capacity and supply chains to 2050.
  6. BloombergNEFAnnual lithium-ion battery price survey — the source of the $/kWh series.
  7. IRENAStorage cost and deployment outlooks, regional renewables context.
  8. IPCC AR6 Working Group IIIMitigation pathways — the 2035/2050 framing behind the roadmap.

Rules, methods & standards · 规则与方法学

  1. EU Battery Regulation (EU) 2023/1542Carbon footprint declaration, due diligence, recycled content, battery passport — full legal text.
  2. Global Battery AllianceBattery Passport framework and greenhouse-gas rulebook.
  3. Argonne National Laboratory — GREETLifecycle model underlying most published cradle-to-gate battery footprints.
  4. Argonne — EverBatt & recycling analysisClosed-loop recycling energy and emissions modelling.
  5. US DOE — Vehicle Technologies, BatteriesNational battery blueprint, manufacturing and materials programmes.
  6. Science Based Targets initiativeWhere corporate Scope 3 battery claims are validated.
  7. Fraunhofer ISIBattery technology and cell-production roadmaps to 2045.
  8. Batteries EuropeEU research and innovation roadmap for the battery value chain.

Industry, market & capital · 产业与资本

  1. Benchmark Mineral IntelligenceGigafactory pipeline tracking and raw-material pricing.
  2. SNE ResearchMonthly global EV battery installation and market-share data.
  3. Transport & EnvironmentIndependent European analysis on battery footprints and supply chains.
  4. RMIBattery mineral loop and clean-energy S-curve research.
  5. CATLZero-carbon factory claims, LFP and sodium-ion product disclosures.
  6. BYDVertically integrated cell-to-vehicle sustainability reporting.
  7. Tesla — Impact ReportPublished lifecycle and manufacturing emissions methodology.
  8. Apple — EnvironmentSupplier clean-energy programme reaching into cell and materials suppliers.
  9. UmicoreCathode materials and closed-loop recycling operations.
  10. Redwood MaterialsDomestic recycling-to-cathode loop in North America.
  11. Breakthrough EnergyPatient capital thesis for hard-to-abate industrial technology.
  12. IFC · EIBDevelopment and transition finance shaping where processing is located.

Figures quoted on this page are drawn from the publishers above and are stated as ranges wherever methodologies differ. Where a source updates annually, read the current edition rather than this summary. Nothing here is investment advice.
本页引用的数据均来自上述发布方，凡方法学存在差异之处一律以区间表述。若来源为年度更新，请以最新版本为准，而非本页摘要。本页内容不构成投资建议。