Research benchmark · 研究基准 · not investment advice

Two furnaces hold the century.

两座炉子，扣着这个世纪。

Steel and cement burn roughly a seventh of the world's carbon budget every year — and every wind farm, rail line and hospital is made out of them. This is a benchmark of the 2026–2050 roadmap: what is already on track, what still needs calling out, and where the capital is actually going. 钢铁与水泥合计约占全球能源系统碳排放的 15%，而所有的风电、铁路与医院都由它们建成。本页对 2026–2050 路线图做一次对标：哪些已在轨、哪些需要点名、资金真正流向了哪里。

Bilingual EN / 中文 · Global & regional · sources linked at the end

≈2.6 GtCO₂ a year from iron & steel 钢铁年排放IEA steel tracker
≈2.4 GtCO₂ a year from cement 水泥年排放IEA cement tracker
≈60%of cement CO₂ is limestone chemistry, not fuel 水泥碳排来自石灰石分解，非燃料Process emissions
0.71→0.57clinker-to-cement ratio needed by 2030 2030 年熟料系数目标IEA NZE pathway

Read this first · 判断的三个支点

Why it is hard, what changes, how it actually moves.

为什么难 · 要做什么 · 怎么真正推动

WHY为什么

Both sectors emit from chemistry, not just heat. A blast furnace uses coal as a reductant; a kiln releases CO₂ from limestone itself. Assets last 20–40 years, and roughly seven in ten blast furnaces globally face a relining decision this decade — each one either locks in two more decades of coal, or becomes the entry point for the transition. 两个行业的排放来自化学反应本身：高炉用煤作还原剂，窑炉的碳来自石灰石分解。资产寿命 20–40 年，全球约七成高炉将在本十年面临大修决策——每一次要么锁定二十年煤基路线，要么成为转型入口。

WHAT做什么

Two moves, in order. 2026–2035: substitute and pre-build — scrap, clinker substitution, alternative fuels, efficiency, and hydrogen-ready / capture-ready design at every reinvestment point. 2035–2050: rebuild and store — hydrogen and electrified reduction as default, CO₂ capture on the clinker that remains, and new binders moving from niche to double-digit share. 两步走。2026–2035：替代与预置——废钢、熟料替代、替代燃料、能效，并在每一次再投资中做到"氢就绪 / 捕集就绪"。2035–2050：重建与封存——氢基与电化学还原成为默认，剩余熟料上碳捕集，新型胶凝材料从小众走向两位数份额。

HOW怎么做

Three enablers decide the speed, and none of them are technology: cheap firm clean electricity (hydrogen and electric kilns are electricity in disguise), a bankable carbon signal (CBAM, ETS, 45Q, contracts-for-difference), and a shared definition of "near-zero" so a buyer can pay for it and an auditor can verify it. 决定速度的三个使能条件都不是技术：便宜且稳定的清洁电力（氢与电窑本质是电力）、可融资的碳价信号（CBAM、碳市场、45Q、差价合约），以及统一的"近零"定义——买方才付得出溢价，审计才核得清。

The technology is mostly decided. The financing, the ore and the CO₂ pipelines are not.

技术路线大体已定；真正未定的是融资、直接还原级铁矿石，以及二氧化碳的运输与封存。
PHASE 01 2026–2035 Substitute, prove, pre-build.替代、验证、预置：把每一次大修都变成转型入口。

Steel钢铁

  • Scrap firstPush electric arc furnaces to the limit of available scrap — the cheapest tonne of abatement in the system, ~70–75% lower emissions than the blast-furnace route.最大化废钢—电炉路线：全系统成本最低的减排吨，较高炉流程低约 70–75%。
  • BridgeNatural-gas DRI built hydrogen-ready in gas-rich regions (Gulf, North America), so the switch later is a retrofit, not a rebuild.在天然气富集地区建"可切氢"的气基直接还原铁，未来只需改造而非重建。
  • First of a kind4–8 commercial green H₂-DRI plants running — Stegra (Boden), HYBRIT, Cleveland-Cliffs Middletown, POSCO HyREX pilots.建成 4–8 座商业级绿氢直接还原工厂。
  • Policy clockCBAM definitive regime from 2026; EU free allocation phases down 2026–2034; China's national ETS extended to steel, cement and aluminium.2026 年 CBAM 正式实施；欧盟免费配额 2026–2034 逐步退出；中国全国碳市场扩容至钢铁、水泥、电解铝。
  • WatchDR-grade pellet supply is the quiet bottleneck — most of the world's iron ore is not clean enough for direct reduction.直接还原级球团供应是隐性瓶颈：全球多数铁矿品位不足。

Cement水泥

  • Biggest near-term winClinker substitution at scale — LC3 / calcined clay, slag, fly ash, ground limestone. Cuts 20–40% of CO₂ per tonne of cement with existing plants.大规模熟料替代（LC3 煅烧黏土、矿渣、粉煤灰、石灰石粉），在现有产线上即可降碳 20–40%。
  • FuelAlternative fuels above 50% thermal substitution in Europe; below 10% across much of Asia — the gap is a policy and waste-infrastructure problem, not a kiln problem.欧洲替代燃料热替代率已超 50%，亚洲多数地区仍低于 10%——差距在政策与固废体系，而非窑炉。
  • First of a kind5–10 full-chain cement CCS plants — Brevik (Norway, first in the world, from 2025), Padeswood, Edmonton, Mitchell (Indiana), plus Chinese demonstration lines.建成 5–10 条全链条水泥碳捕集示范线。
  • Demand sideStandards move from cement to concrete to structure: performance-based specs, EPDs, green public procurement, and 10–30% less concrete through better design.标准从"水泥"走向"混凝土与结构"：性能化规范、环境产品声明、绿色采购，并通过优化设计减少 10–30% 混凝土用量。
  • WatchSCM scarcity — as coal plants and blast furnaces retire, fly ash and slag disappear. Calcined clay is the only supply that scales with demand.辅助胶凝材料将短缺：燃煤电厂与高炉退出后，粉煤灰与矿渣消失，唯有煅烧黏土可随需求扩产。
PHASE 02 2035–2050 Rebuild the furnace. Bury the chemistry.重建炉体，封存化学：不可燃料替代的那部分碳，必须被捕集或被重新发明。

Steel钢铁

  • Blast furnaces retire at end of campaign, not early — the transition is paid for by the reinvestment cycle, which is why 2026–2032 decisions determine 2050 emissions.高炉在寿期末退出而非提前关停——转型由再投资周期买单，因此 2026–2032 的决策决定 2050 的排放。
  • H₂-DRI + EAF becomes the default new build wherever firm clean power lands under roughly US$30–40/MWh.在清洁电价约 30–40 美元/兆瓦时以下的地区，氢基直接还原＋电炉成为新建默认路线。
  • Direct electrolysis moves from pilot to plant — molten oxide electrolysis (Boston Metal) and low-temperature electrowinning (Electra) skip hydrogen entirely and accept lower-grade ore.直接电解从中试走向工厂：熔融氧化物电解与低温电积绕开氢气，并可使用低品位矿。
  • Scrap rises toward 45–50% of global output as the twentieth-century building stock comes back — provided copper contamination is sorted at source.随着上世纪建筑存量回流，废钢占比升至全球产量的 45–50%，前提是源头解决铜杂质问题。

Cement水泥

  • CCUS on the majority of surviving clinker capacity — this is not optional: no fuel switch removes process CO₂.存续熟料产能的大部分必须加装碳捕集——燃料替代无法消除工艺过程排放。
  • Shared CO₂ transport and storage networks become the rate-limiting infrastructure, more than the capture units themselves.共享的二氧化碳输送与封存网络将成为限速环节，其难度高于捕集装置本身。
  • Electrified and oxyfuel kilns, plus CO₂-cured concrete and carbonated recycled aggregate turning waste concrete into a sink.电加热与富氧燃烧窑；二氧化碳养护混凝土与碳化再生骨料，把废混凝土变成碳汇。
  • Novel binders climb from niche to 10–20% — electrochemical cement (Sublime), calcium-silicate routes (Brimstone), reactive calcium hydroxide (Fortera).新型胶凝材料份额从小众升至 10–20%：电化学水泥、钙硅酸盐路线、活性氢氧化钙路线。

Cement's last 60% is a pipeline problem wearing a chemistry costume.

水泥最后 60% 的减排，看似化学问题，实为管网与封存的基础设施问题。

By region · 分区域视角

The same physics, five very different economics.

物理相同，经济学截然不同

Where a tonne of steel or cement decarbonises first is decided by electricity price, carbon price, scrap availability and who is buying the building. 谁先减碳，由电价、碳价、废钢资源与"谁在买这栋楼"共同决定。

Region 区域2026–2035 lever 主要杠杆Policy engine 政策引擎What to watch 观察点
EU & UK欧盟与英国
LeverHighest alternative-fuel rates, first cement CCS chains, HYBRIT/Stegra green steel, scrap-rich EAF base.
PolicyETS + CBAM (definitive from 2026), Innovation Fund, free-allocation phase-out 2026–2034.
WatchIndustrial power prices and leakage politics — the premium only holds if CBAM is enforced cleanly.工业电价与"碳泄漏"政治：CBAM 执行力度决定溢价能否维持。
China 中国全球一半以上产量
LeverCapacity swap + efficiency, scrap-EAF share growth, HBIS/Baowu hydrogen-rich DRI and HyCROF, cement co-processing.
PolicyNational ETS extended to steel, cement and aluminium (2024–25 compliance start); ultra-low emission retrofits.
WatchYoung coal-based fleet — average blast furnace age is low, so retirement economics, not technology, sets the pace.高炉平均服役年限短，退出的是经济性而非技术。
India 印度增量最大市场
LeverAlready world-leading blended cement (low clinker factor); LC3 scale-up; green hydrogen for new DRI capacity.
PolicyNational Green Hydrogen Mission; Carbon Credit Trading Scheme with intensity targets for steel and cement.
WatchDemand triples before 2050 — every plant built this decade is a 2060 asset. Avoiding lock-in beats retrofitting.2050 年前需求成倍增长，本十年新建的每座工厂都将服役到 2060 年——避免锁定优于后期改造。
United States美国
LeverAlready ~70% EAF steel; first-of-a-kind cement and steel demos (Sublime, Brimstone, Cleveland-Cliffs).
Policy45Q at US$85/t for storage; DOE Industrial Demonstrations Program (~US$6bn); Buy Clean procurement.
WatchPolicy durability across administrations — private offtake, not grants, is what makes these plants bankable.政策连续性风险：真正让项目可融资的是长期承购协议，而非补贴。
Japan & Korea日本与韩国
LeverCOURSE50 / Super COURSE50 hydrogen injection, POSCO HyREX fluidised-bed reduction, high-grade export steel.
PolicyJapan GX transition bonds (~¥20tn) and GX-ETS; Korea K-ETS and hydrogen roadmap.
WatchImport dependence for both ore and clean energy — these economies decarbonise by buying green iron abroad.矿石与清洁能源双重依赖进口，路径很可能是"进口绿色铁"。
Gulf & MENA中东与北非
LeverCheapest solar plus existing gas-DRI fleet — the natural first exporter of green HBI/iron to Europe and Asia.
PolicySovereign industrial strategies; Emsteel, Qatar Steel, Oman green-steel projects.
WatchWhether green iron is exported as a commodity — that single trade would decouple ore quality from furnace location.绿色铁能否成为可贸易大宗商品，将使矿石品位与炼钢地点解耦。
Africa & SE Asia非洲与东南亚
LeverLeapfrog: LC3 and blended cement from day one, limestone-calcined-clay standards written before capacity is built.
PolicyDevelopment finance and national building codes — the highest leverage, lowest funded instruments in the system.
WatchMost future cement demand growth sits here, and almost none of the concessional capital does.未来水泥需求增长主要在此，而优惠性资本几乎缺席——这是最需要点名的错配。

Emerging investment areas & returns · 新兴投资领域与回报

Ranked by what a tonne of CO₂ actually costs.

按每吨二氧化碳的真实成本排序

Directional ranges compiled from IEA, MPP, ETC and RMI published pathways — treat them as orders of magnitude for judgement, then open the raw sources at the bottom. 以下区间来自 IEA、MPP、ETC 与 RMI 公开路径的整理，仅供数量级判断，具体请见文末原始资料。

Lever 杠杆Capital & abatement costPayback · returnTRLVerdict 判断
Clinker substitution / LC3熟料替代与煅烧黏土
CostLow capex · US$0–30/t CO₂ — often cost-negative on fuel and clinker savings.
Return2–4 yr payback · high-teens to 30% IRR
TRL9
VerdictOn track, under-deployed. Bottleneck is standards and clay logistics, not economics.已在轨但部署不足，瓶颈在标准与黏土供应链。
Scrap circularity + EAF废钢循环与电炉
CostUS$150–300m per Mt · US$0–40/t CO₂
Return3–6 yr payback · 15–25% IRR where power is cheap.
TRL9
VerdictBest risk-adjusted return in the system. Real constraint is scrap quality and copper.全系统风险调整后回报最佳，真正约束是废钢品质与铜杂质。
Alternative fuels & co-processing替代燃料与协同处置
CostUS$10–60m per line · US$10–50/t CO₂
Return2–5 yr payback · 12–25% IRR with gate fees.
TRL9
VerdictMature in Europe, wide open in Asia and Africa. Needs waste-collection policy to unlock.欧洲成熟，亚非空白，需固废政策配套。
Cement CCUS, full chain水泥全链条碳捕集
CostUS$250–500m per plant · US$60–140/t CO₂
ReturnNegative without a carbon price above ~US$100/t, 45Q, or a CfD.
TRL7–9
VerdictCall-out. Capture is ready; transport and storage are 5–10 years behind. Fund the middle of the chain.需点名：捕集已就绪，输送与封存落后 5–10 年，应优先投中间环节。
Green H₂-DRI steel绿氢直接还原钢
CostUS$1–2bn per Mt · US$60–150/t CO₂ at US$2/kg H₂.
ReturnBankable only with 7–10 yr offtake + green premium of US$100–300/t.
TRL8
VerdictFinanceable but fragile. Sensitive to electricity price and DR-grade ore, not to technology risk.可融资但脆弱：对电价与直接还原级矿石敏感，而非技术风险。
Electrochemical cement & steel电化学水泥与炼钢
CostVenture & first-plant scale · US$100m–1bn rounds
Return2030s payoff · venture-grade dispersion, high option value
TRL5–7
VerdictThe real 2040 hedge. If it works, it removes both the kiln and the CO₂ pipeline.面向 2040 的真正对冲：一旦成立，可同时省掉窑炉与二氧化碳管网。
Material efficiency & design材料效率与设计优化
CostNear-zero capex · negative abatement cost — 10–30% less concrete per structure.
ReturnImmediate · savings accrue to the developer
TRL9
VerdictHighest ROI, least funded lever in the whole roadmap.全路线图中回报最高、投入最少的杠杆——严重被忽视。
MRV, EPDs, product passports核算、环境声明与产品护照
CostSoftware-scale spend · US<$5m per producer
ReturnEnables every premium above · multiplier, not a margin
TRL9
VerdictSmall money, systemic effect. Without it "near-zero" is unenforceable and unpriceable.小投入、系统性影响：没有它，"近零"既不可执行也无法定价。

Green steel adds about 1% to the price of a car. Low-carbon concrete adds 1–3% to a building.

绿色钢材使一辆汽车成本上升约 1%；低碳混凝土使一栋建筑成本上升 1–3%。溢价的问题从来不是消费者付不起，而是产业链上没人被要求去问。

Who funds it · who buys it · 谁出钱 · 谁先用

Money for good only works when someone signs an offtake.

只有当有人签下承购协议，向善的资本才真正成立

Capital that is actually deploying正在真实落地的资本

  • Breakthrough Energy Ventures & Catalyst — the most consistent early backer of hard-tech cement and steel (Boston Metal, Fortera and peers), plus first-plant "green premium" financing.Patient venture + first-of-a-kind capital硬科技水泥与钢铁最持续的早期投资方，并为首套装置提供绿色溢价融资。
  • Sovereign programmes — EU Innovation Fund (ETS-funded), US DOE Industrial Demonstrations Program (~US$6bn), Japan's GX transition bonds (~¥20tn), India's Green Hydrogen Mission.The de-risking layer主权级项目：欧盟创新基金、美国能源部产业示范计划、日本 GX 转型债、印度绿氢使命——承担去风险角色。
  • Transition infrastructure funds — Brookfield Global Transition, TPG Rise Climate and peers, moving from generation into brownfield industrial retrofit, where the tonnes are.Infrastructure-scale, single-digit-plus returns转型基础设施基金正从发电转向存量工业改造——真正的减排量所在。
  • Corporate strategic investors — Mercedes-Benz, Scania and Maersk taking equity in green steel; Cemex Ventures and Holcim backing binder start-ups.Equity + offtake in one signature产业战略投资者以"股权＋承购"一次性锁定供应。
  • Chinese state and policy capital — Baowu, HBIS and CNBM directing retrofit capex at a scale no venture fund can match.Scale is the differentiator中国国有与政策性资本以任何风险基金都无法匹敌的规模推动改造。

Adopters who create the market创造市场的先行采购方

  • SteelZero & ConcreteZero (Climate Group) — members commit to 100% net-zero steel and concrete by 2050 with interim 2030 targets. The clearest public demand signal that exists.Buyer clubs成员承诺 2050 年 100% 使用净零钢材与混凝土，并设 2030 中期目标。
  • First Movers Coalition — near-zero purchase commitments across steel, cement and concrete, aggregating small percentages of very large procurement budgets.Aggregated demand在钢铁、水泥与混凝土上做"近零采购"承诺，把大额采购中的小比例聚合成早期市场。
  • Microsoft & Sublime Systems — one of the largest low-carbon cement offtake agreements signed to date, tying data-centre construction to a first-of-a-kind plant.Offtake unlocks project finance迄今规模最大的低碳水泥承购之一，把数据中心建设与首套装置绑定。
  • Volvo Group, Mercedes-Benz, BMW — first vehicles and components built from fossil-free and hydrogen-reduced steel; automotive is paying the premium because it is invisible per unit.Premium hidden in a big product汽车业率先使用无化石与氢还原钢材：溢价摊到单车几乎不可见。
  • Public procurement — Buy Clean policies in the US and California, EU green public procurement, Nordic road and rail authorities. Governments buy ~25–40% of all concrete.The largest single buyer on earth政府采购约占混凝土用量的 25–40%，是地球上最大的单一买家。

The big five · 水泥价值型可持续转型 · 五大杠杆

Five moves that turn cement's cost into an advantage.

把水泥的减碳成本转化为竞争优势的五件事

Ordered by how quickly value shows up, not by how much CO₂ they remove. Steel has direct parallels for each. 按价值兑现速度排序，而非按减碳量排序；钢铁行业每一项都有对应做法。

01

Clinker down, performance up降熟料，提性能

LC3 and calcined clay cut CO₂ 20–40% with existing kilns and often lower cost per tonne. The value is a margin gain today, before any carbon price.煅烧黏土等路线在现有窑炉上降碳 20–40%，且单位成本常更低——在任何碳价之前就是利润。Value now · 立即兑现

02

Fuel and heat, re-sourced燃料与热源重构

Waste-derived and biomass fuels, plus kiln efficiency and electrification of pre-heating. Gate fees make the fuel a revenue line rather than a cost line.替代燃料与生物质、窑炉能效与预热电气化；处置费使燃料从成本项变为收入项。Value in 2–5 years · 中期

03

Capture the chemistry捕集工艺过程碳

CCUS is the only route to cement's irreducible 60%. Value depends entirely on shared transport and storage plus a durable carbon signal — build the cluster, not the plant.碳捕集是水泥不可削减的 60% 的唯一出路；价值取决于共享输送封存与持久碳价——要建集群，而非孤立装置。Value with policy · 依赖政策

04

Sell structures, not tonnes卖结构，而非卖吨

Optimised design, high-performance mixes and reuse deliver the same building with 10–30% less material. Producers who move into design services capture value they currently give away.优化设计、高性能配比与再利用可用少 10–30% 的材料建成同样的结构；向设计服务延伸的生产商才能留住这部分价值。Highest ROI · 回报最高

05

Make green legible让"绿色"可被识别

EPDs, MRV, a shared near-zero definition and green public procurement. Without measurement there is no premium; with it, the first mover holds a defensible position for a decade.环境产品声明、可测量核算、统一近零定义与绿色采购：没有度量就没有溢价；有了度量，先行者可守住十年身位。Enables 01–04 · 支撑前四项

Benchmark ledger · 对标台账

What's on track. What needs calling out.

已在轨的 · 必须点名的

On track已在轨

  • ✓Policy pull is real and dated. CBAM definitive from 2026, China's ETS extended to steel and cement, 45Q at US$85/t.政策拉力已有明确时间表。
  • ✓First-of-a-kind is no longer theoretical. Cement CCS operating in Norway; commercial H₂-DRI under construction in Sweden.首套装置已从论证走向运行。
  • ✓Blended cement works. India and Europe show low clinker factors are commercially normal.混合水泥在商业上已属常态。
  • ✓Buyer clubs have moved from pledge to contract. SteelZero, ConcreteZero, First Movers offtakes.采购联盟已从承诺走向合同。
  • ✓Project pipelines are now publicly trackable — Green Steel Tracker, Global Steel Plant Tracker.项目管道已可公开追踪。

Call-out需要点名

  • !CO₂ transport and storage is 5–10 years behind capture. Capture plants without a pipeline are stranded assets in waiting.输送与封存落后捕集 5–10 年，没有管网的捕集装置即是待搁浅资产。
  • !The relining wave 2026–2032 is the single biggest lock-in risk. Each rebuilt blast furnace books two more decades of coal.2026–2032 高炉大修潮是最大的锁定风险。
  • !DR-grade iron ore and clean scrap are under-invested. Feedstock, not furnaces, will bind first.直接还原级铁矿与洁净废钢投入不足，先卡住的是原料而非炉子。
  • !SCM supply shrinks as coal and blast furnaces retire. Calcined clay capacity is not being built fast enough.粉煤灰与矿渣将随煤电与高炉退出而减少，煅烧黏土产能建设太慢。
  • !Green demand is still voluntary and thin. Regulated procurement, not pledges, is what makes premiums bankable.绿色需求仍以自愿为主且规模有限；只有强制性采购才能让溢价可融资。
  • !Capital is not reaching the growth markets. Most future demand is in Africa and Asia; almost no concessional finance is.资本未流向增量市场：未来需求主要在非洲与亚洲，优惠资金却几乎缺席。
  • !"Near-zero" definitions are fragmenting. Divergent thresholds let the same tonne be green in one market and grey in another."近零"定义正在碎片化，同一吨钢在不同市场可以既绿又灰。

Sources · 资料来源 · open the raw materials

Every number above has a door you can walk through.

以上每一个数字，都有可以直接打开的原始出处

Figures are compiled and rounded from these published pathways and trackers. Where ranges appear, they reflect genuine disagreement between sources — that disagreement is itself part of the benchmark. 数据取自以下公开路径与追踪工具并做了取整；出现区间处，反映的是不同来源之间的真实分歧——这种分歧本身也是对标的一部分。

Roadmaps & pathways 路线图与路径

  1. R01IEA — Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap国际能源署 · 钢铁技术路线图
  2. R02IEA / WBCSD — Low-Carbon Transition in the Cement Industry水泥行业低碳转型技术路线图
  3. R03IEA — Net Zero Roadmap, 2023 update净零路线图（2023 更新）
  4. R04IEA — Energy Technology Perspectives 2024能源技术展望 2024
  5. R05IEA — Cement sector tracker (intensity, clinker ratio)水泥行业追踪：碳强度与熟料系数
  6. R06IEA — Steel sector tracker钢铁行业追踪
  7. R07GCCA — Concrete Future: 2050 Net Zero Roadmap全球水泥与混凝土协会 · 2050 净零路线图
  8. R08Mission Possible Partnership — steel & concrete transition strategiesMPP · 钢铁与混凝土转型战略与投资规模
  9. R09Energy Transitions Commission — Mission Possible / green premium analysis能源转型委员会 · 绿色溢价分析
  10. R10RMI — Climate-Aligned Industries (steel, cement, buyer demand)RMI · 气候对齐产业
  11. R11Agora Industry — blast furnace reinvestment cycle & industrial transitionAgora Industry · 高炉再投资周期研究

Data & trackers 数据与追踪

  1. D01LeadIT — Green Steel Tracker绿色钢铁项目追踪
  2. D02Global Energy Monitor — Global Steel Plant Tracker全球钢铁厂追踪：产能、炉龄、技术路线
  3. D03World Steel Association — production & CO₂ statistics世界钢铁协会 · 产量与碳排统计
  4. D04Global CCS Institute — Global Status of CCS全球 CCS 研究院 · 年度进展报告
  5. D05IEA — Global Hydrogen Review (cost of clean H₂)全球氢能评论 · 绿氢成本
  6. D06BloombergNEF — green premium & industrial decarbonisation researchBNEF · 绿色溢价与工业脱碳研究
  7. D07CEMBUREAU — European cement industry data & alternative fuel rates欧洲水泥协会 · 替代燃料替代率数据

Policy engines 政策引擎

  1. P01European Commission — Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)欧盟碳边境调节机制
  2. P02European Commission — Innovation Fund欧盟创新基金
  3. P03US DOE — Industrial Demonstrations Program美国能源部 · 工业示范计划
  4. P04China Ministry of Ecology and Environment — national ETS expansion to steel, cement, aluminium生态环境部 · 全国碳市场扩容至钢铁、水泥、电解铝
  5. P05India MNRE — National Green Hydrogen Mission印度国家绿氢使命

Demand, standards, projects 需求方 · 标准 · 项目

  1. M01Climate Group — SteelZeroSteelZero 净零钢材采购倡议
  2. M02Climate Group — ConcreteZeroConcreteZero 净零混凝土倡议
  3. M03World Economic Forum — First Movers Coalition世界经济论坛 · 先行者联盟
  4. M04ResponsibleSteel — certification & near-zero definitionsResponsibleSteel · 认证与近零定义
  5. M05Stegra (formerly H2 Green Steel) — Boden green steel plant瑞典 Boden 绿氢钢厂
  6. M06HYBRIT — SSAB / LKAB / Vattenfall fossil-free steelHYBRIT 无化石钢铁
  7. M07Boston Metal — molten oxide electrolysis熔融氧化物电解炼铁
  8. M08Electra — low-temperature iron electrowinning低温电积炼铁
  9. M09Sublime Systems — electrochemical cement电化学水泥
  10. M10Brimstone — calcium-silicate rock cement钙硅酸盐岩路线水泥
  11. M11Fortera — ReCarbon reactive calcium hydroxide活性氢氧化钙路线
  12. M12Heidelberg Materials — Brevik, the first cement CCS plant全球首座水泥碳捕集工厂 Brevik
  13. M13Northern Lights — CO₂ transport & storage, Norway挪威 CO₂ 输送与封存基础设施
  14. M14Holcim · Cemex — producer low-carbon product lines主要生产商的低碳产品线
  15. M15China Baowu — HyCROF and low-carbon metallurgy programme中国宝武 · 低碳冶金与 HyCROF
  16. M16Breakthrough Energy — Ventures & CatalystBreakthrough Energy · 风险投资与首套装置融资

Compiled as a benchmarking study, not an investment recommendation. Cost, IRR and payback figures are directional ranges drawn from the published pathways above; verify against the primary source before any decision. 本页为对标研究，非投资建议。成本、内部收益率与回收期均为上述公开路径整理的方向性区间，决策前请回到原始出处核对。