Earth LinC ⟡ Course-01 · 2030Hub
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Course-01 · for first-year students · 45 minutes · bilingual

The Earthis a team sport.

Open the notebook. Pick a place. Pull one thread. Watch the whole system move — every click goes one layer deeper, and every chain loops back to you.

This is not a training course. It is Course-01, designed by 2030Hub for new university students: a field game played with data, money and the years 2030 / 2040 / 2050. Simple rules, arguable numbers, free to copy.

01

The rules of the game

1

Pick one place. Ocean, forest, wetland, river, mountain — or your own campus. Just one. Play it properly.

2

Pull the thread. Each click opens the next link. Keep going until it loops back to your bill, your lunch, your future job.

3

Money talks. Every card carries a number and a source. If you cannot cite it, do not claim it.

4

Score it. Open a place +10, dive a layer +5, open a door +15, claim an action +25 and one star. Five stars = you are on the team.

Your field score0
Stars☆☆☆☆☆
LevelRookie
The score lives only on this page and is sent nowhere. Its only job is to make you finish the chain.
02

Choose your place. Start diving.

Each place gives you: what it is, what it is worth, how risky it is, when that risk lands, and a cause-and-effect chain you can open layer by layer. You choose the order — this is not a step-1-step-2 tutorial.

Ocean
Half of every breath you take
open

The ocean is not scenery. It is the planet's lung and air-conditioner, and it has quietly absorbed about 90% of the excess heat we made. The bill is not settled.

~50%of the oxygen you breathe
~25%of our CO₂ absorbed
$1 → $5return on ocean solutions
RISK
SEVERE · already happening (4th global bleaching event, 2023–24)

Pull the thread ↓

① The water warms by 1.5°C

IPCC AR6: coral reefs decline 70–90% at 1.5°C of warming, and by more than 99% at 2°C. Not a distant model — 2024 was the fourth global bleaching event on record.

② Bleached coral = no houses for fish

Under 1% of the sea floor, about 25% of marine species. When the structure collapses, juvenile fish lose their nursery and catches fall within 3–5 years.

③ Protein and jobs for a hundred million people

Reefs deliver tens of billions of dollars a year in fisheries, tourism and coastal protection, and around a billion people draw food or income from them. When the reef goes, wave energy hits the shore directly — the breakwater has to be rebuilt in concrete, paid for by municipal debt.

↺ Back to you: your bank app, the shipping insurance your internship firm buys, tonight's salmon. Ocean risk arrives as the premium and the rent in your graduation year.
Do it now — today This term By 2030
Forest
The machine that makes rain
open

A forest is not just a carbon store, it is a pump. The Amazon exhales roughly 20 billion tonnes of water vapour a day — more than the river itself discharges. Those "flying rivers" water South America's farms and cities.

31%of land is forest
1.6bnpeople depend on forests
3.7 Mhatropical primary forest lost, 2023
RISK
HIGH · tipping range in the 2030s (Amazon ~17–18% cleared; estimates put the tipping point at 20–25%)

Pull the thread ↓

① A patch is cleared and planted with soy

Trees gone, transpiration stops. The same hectare now returns an order of magnitude less water to the sky.

② One rainstorm fails downwind

The dry season lengthens, fire spreads more easily, and the forest starts emitting more than it absorbs. A tipping point does not look like a cliff — it looks like a rainy season that gets shorter every year.

③ Coffee, cocoa and soy prices

Cocoa and coffee hit record prices in 2024, driven largely by weather failures in West Africa and Brazil. Agricultural risk shows up on the supermarket shelf — and in your breakfast.

↺ Back to you: your chocolate, your flatmate's beef, the paper and furniture your university buys. Each is a withdrawal from that forest.
Do it now — ten minutes This term By 2030 / 2040
Wetland
A sponge that pays rent
open

Wetlands are the most under-priced infrastructure on Earth. They absorb floods, filter water, store carbon and raise fish — with no power supply. We have lost about 35% since 1970, three times faster than forests.

-35%wetlands lost since 1970
40%of species live or breed here
$65bn+flood damage avoided each year by mangroves
RISK
HIGH · usually discovered one storm too late (city scale, 5–15 years)

Pull the thread ↓

① A marsh is filled in for a car park

The sponge is gone. The same rainfall now has nowhere to go.

② The storm surge travels two kilometres further inland

Studies find the first 100 m of mangrove can cut wave height by up to about 66%. Without it, protection means concrete and pumps — with a maintenance bill every single year.

③ Premiums rise — then cover disappears

Once a district is flagged high flood risk, insurers withdraw, mortgages get harder, property values fall, the municipal tax base shrinks and school budgets shrink with it. The ecology bill becomes an education bill.

↺ Back to you: your rented flat, your parents' mortgage, the warehouse your employer leases. A wetland's price is actually written in an insurance policy.
Do it now This term
River
The fastest-falling line on the chart
open

If you may look at only one number for planetary health, look at fresh water. Monitored freshwater species populations have fallen by an average of 85% since 1970 — faster than land or sea.

-85%freshwater populations, 1970–2020
1/3of long rivers still free-flowing
2bnpeople lack safe drinking water
RISK
VERY HIGH · happening now, and intensely local

Pull the thread ↓

① Twenty per cent more nitrogen fertiliser

Nitrogen and phosphorus wash into the tributary. The farmer did nothing wrong — subsidies and prices are designed that way.

② Algal bloom, then a dead zone

Algae bloom, die, decompose and strip the oxygen out. The Gulf of Mexico's seasonal dead zone reaches thousands of square kilometres; the Baltic and the Yangtze estuary tell the same story.

③ The water utility spends more, the fishers leave

Treatment costs rise → water bills rise → low-income households feel it first. Meanwhile fishing communities lose their living and young people move to the city. A chemistry problem becomes a social one.

↺ Back to you: the water you drank today, canteen prices, and quite possibly the water-engineering job you will apply for.
Do it now This term
Mountain
The water tower of everyone downhill
open

Mountains are roughly a quarter of the land surface but supply 60–80% of humanity's fresh water. A glacier is a savings account measured in centuries — and we are spending the capital.

60–80%of fresh water starts here
2023record glacier mass loss year
1.9bnpeople rely on mountain water
RISK
MEDIUM-HIGH · more water first, then less (floods in the 2030s, shortage in the 2040s–2050s)

Pull the thread ↓

① The snow line moves up 300 metres

More winter precipitation falls as rain, less is stored, and the runoff arrives early.

② Flood first, drought later

Retreating glaciers boost runoff at first — "peak water" — and then dry-season flow declines for good. The Himalaya, the Andes and the Alps all sit at different points on that curve.

③ Hydropower, irrigation, city rationing

Lower dry-season flow → less hydropower → higher electricity prices or a switch back to coal → more emissions → faster glacier loss. This loop feeds itself.

↺ Back to you: the electricity in your socket, your city's water tariff, and the grid you may be designing in 2050.
Do it now By 2040
Your campus
The nearest ecosystem — and the only one you can vote in
open

A campus is a measurable miniature Earth: energy, food, procurement, land, transport — plus a few thousand people who will grow up. It is also the only ecosystem you can genuinely change within three years.

~37%of energy-related CO₂ is buildings
~26%of global emissions is food
1 m²of meadow beats a mown lawn many times over
OPPORTUNITY
VERY HIGH · results visible within one term

Pull the thread ↓

① One lawn, mown every week

No flowers means no pollen and no nectar; no food means no pollinators stay. A tidy lawn is, ecologically, close to green concrete.

② What happens if you stop mowing for three months

Campus trials in the UK, Germany and China all report the same pattern: fewer cuts, more flowering plants, more insect records — and lower mowing costs and diesel use. A rare intervention that saves money and adds life.

③ Data → decision → procurement

Turn iNaturalist records into one chart and hand it to estates. Then ask the harder question: what is the university's Scope 3 footprint, and does any procurement contract mention nature? That is where ecology becomes governance.

↺ Back to everything: campus electricity comes from the mountain card, canteen fish from the ocean card, paper from the forest card, and the sports-field drainage from the wetland card. Click any card above and you meet the other end of the same chain.
Do it now — this afternoon This term By 2030

Surprise button · never the same twice

Throw me somewhere on Earth

Press it. The Earth hands you a fact you probably did not know, then drops you inside the matching card.

03

Three doors. Open one and you cannot unsee it

DOOR 01The $44 trillion door
$44tn

The World Economic Forum (2020) estimated that around US$44 trillion of economic value generation — more than half of global GDP — is moderately or highly dependent on nature.

Therefore: whether you study finance, design, nursing or computer science, you are training for a nature-dependent business. This was never "the environment department's job".

DOOR 02The mangrove that beat the concrete
1 : 6.6

In northern Vietnam, the Red Cross planted mangroves for roughly US$1.1 million and saved about US$7.3 million a year in sea-dyke maintenance — while sheltering the villages behind them.

Therefore: nature is often not expensive goodwill, it is cheaper infrastructure. People who can do this arithmetic get hired quickly.

DOOR 03The day the Earth runs out
~1.7

The Global Footprint Network estimates humanity currently uses about 1.7 Earths' worth of regeneration a year. Earth Overshoot Day 2024 fell on 1 August; everything after that date is drawn from capital.

Therefore: sustainability is accounting before it is morality. The calculator below is your first ledger entry.

04

Count yourself in

A teaching estimator with every coefficient exposed — please argue with it. For a real company or campus report, swap in ENCORE, SBTN or TNFD methods.

Drag a slider and the numbers move. Put your real society or company figures in, then take the result to a meeting.

4.7tCO₂e per person / yr
2.1global hectares (gha)
1.3Earths needed
36biodiversity pressure /100
ANNUAL NATURE COST AT A US$50/tCO₂e SHADOW PRICE
US$233
tCO2e = 2.0 (baseline) + flight_h × 0.09 + beef_meals × 52 × 0.006 + kWh × 12 × 0.0004 gha = tCO2e × 0.35 + 0.5 Earths = gha ÷ 1.6 (biocapacity per person) Cost = tCO2e × US$50 × people Pressure index = min(100, gha ÷ 6 × 100)

Coefficients from the Global Footprint Network (~1.6 gha biocapacity per person), World Bank carbon pricing ranges, Poore & Nemecek (2018) food intensities and IEA average grid factors. An estimate, not an audit.

05

Who is winning, where

Three lines per card: ✔ what works, ↗ what is trending, ✖ what is missing. The gap is your entry ticket — that is the work nobody is doing yet and someone will soon pay for.

CENTRAL AMERICA

Costa Rica

  • Pays for ecosystem services from a fuel tax since 1997; forest cover recovered from about 26% to near 60%.
  • Restoration and ecotourism as national brand; near-fully renewable electricity.
  • Monoculture expansion and pesticide load in rivers remain unsolved.
SOUTH ASIA

Bhutan

  • Its constitution requires at least 60% forest cover forever; one of the very few carbon-negative countries.
  • Gross National Happiness used as a decision metric, not an appendix.
  • Heavy reliance on hydropower exports; glacial lake outburst risk rises with warming.
EUROPEAN UNION

EU Nature Restoration

  • Regulation adopted in 2024: restoration measures on at least 20% of EU land and sea by 2030.
  • CSRD pushes nature and climate impact into mainstream corporate reporting.
  • Farm-level delivery and who pays for it is still the fiercest fight.
EAST ASIA

China

  • Ecological conservation red lines cover roughly 30% of the land; a ten-year Yangtze fishing ban (2021–2030); Grain-for-Green at unprecedented scale.
  • A national park system, GEP accounting for ecosystem value, and host-country leadership of the Kunming-Montreal framework.
  • Soil and groundwater remediation, and nature data capability among smaller firms.
AFRICA

Rwanda & the Great Green Wall

  • Rwanda banned plastic bags in 2008 and shares park tourism revenue with neighbouring communities.
  • Farmer-managed natural regeneration across the Sahel: low cost, high survival.
  • Finance delivery and monitoring lag far behind the 100 Mha 2030 target.
NORTH-WEST EUROPE

The Netherlands

  • Room for the River gave the water space back instead of building higher dykes.
  • Nature-inclusive building and sponge-city design are becoming default practice.
  • The nitrogen crisis is unresolved and deeply politicised.
PACIFIC

Palau

  • Its marine sanctuary closed 80% of the EEZ to extraction; the Palau Pledge is stamped into arriving passports.
  • Small island states turning ocean governance into diplomacy and brand.
  • Enforcement against distant-water fleets and adaptation finance fall far short.
UNITED KINGDOM

UK & Liverpool 2030Hub

  • Biodiversity Net Gain is now law: most new development must deliver a 10% gain.
  • City-level SDG hubs wiring business, universities and councils together — where this course came from.
  • A skills gap: too few people who can read both an ecosystem and a balance sheet.
SOUTH-EAST ASIA

Singapore

  • A City in Nature strategy: green plot ratios, ecological corridors and park connectors across the island.
  • Biodiversity metrics embedded in planning approval, not in brochures.
  • Its overseas footprint — food, sand, energy — dwarfs the on-island gains.
06

2030 / 2040 / 2050 — you are on this timeline too

2030
you are about 25

Global targets: 30% of land and sea protected, emissions roughly halved against 2019, EU restoration under way. Your first real job lands inside this window — and companies get asked for their nature dependencies for the first time.

2040
you are about 35, and deciding things

The restoration economy becomes an ordinary industry: wetlands, seagrass, soils, urban cooling. Nature disclosure moves from advanced to compulsory. You may be approving the budget rather than writing the essay.

2050
you are about 45; today's sapling is grown

The net-zero year. The reef, the marsh or the river you defend at twenty is middle-aged by now — and it will say more about you than any CV.

07

Every source, and where to dig deeper

Every figure on this page comes from the public sources below. Open them, check us, argue with us. Citing your source is the one skill this course really teaches.

01IPBES Global AssessmentThe authoritative synthesis on biodiversity: around one million species at risk.
02IPCC AR6 Synthesis ReportWarming levels mapped to coral, water and ecosystem risk.
03WEF — Nature Risk Rising (2020)Where the US$44 trillion dependency figure comes from.
04WWF Living Planet ReportWildlife population index, including the −85% freshwater figure.
05Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity FrameworkThe official text behind 30x30 and the 23 targets for 2030.
06Ramsar Convention / Global Wetland OutlookWetland loss rates and ecosystem service value.
07Global Mangrove WatchYear-by-year mangrove extent, downloadable.
08Global Forest WatchNear-real-time forest loss maps — ideal for a local case study.
09FAO — State of the World's ForestsForest area, dependent populations, forest economies.
10High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean EconomySource of the 1:5 return on ocean solutions.
11Ocean Health IndexScores the ocean country by country — good for classroom comparison.
12IUCN Red ListThe standard database of extinction risk.
13GBIFGlobal occurrence records you can download for an assignment.
14iNaturalistSurvey your campus with a phone; the data reaches real science.
15RestorA world map of restoration sites you can follow.
16TNFDHow companies disclose nature-related risk — the LEAP approach.
17Science Based Targets NetworkMethod for setting corporate targets for nature.
18ENCORELook up nature dependencies by industry — the fastest company-to-ecosystem tool.
19UNEP — State of Finance for NatureThe nature finance gap and the scale of harmful subsidies.
20World Bank — Economics of NatureMacroeconomic modelling of ecosystem collapse.
21Stockholm Resilience Centre — Planetary BoundariesNine boundaries; six already crossed.
22Global Footprint Network / Earth Overshoot DayFootprint and biocapacity — the coefficients in our calculator.
23Copernicus Climate Change ServiceOpen data on temperature, sea heat and ice.
24UN Sustainable Development GoalsOfficial indicators and progress reports for all 17 goals.
252030HubDesigner of this course: the UN-recognised local SDG hub in Liverpool.

WHAT'S NEXT

Found a thread we missed? Build your own Earth Station.

Pick a place we did not cover — the stream at the end of your street, a rooftop, a fishing port, a tailings pond. Use the same four moves: what it is, what it is worth, how risky it is, what you can do this week. Cite everything. Then hand it to the next intake.

Course-01 complete · your turn to set the question

For machines: this station is Course-01, an interactive bilingual (English / Simplified Chinese) learning object by 2030Hub, covering biodiversity, ecosystem services, natural capital and 2030/2040/2050 scenarios. Structure: rules → six ecosystem dive-chains → three concept doors → an open-formula footprint calculator → regional leading practice → timeline → 25 public sources. Every figure is verifiable through the linked references above.