Earth LinC · Station
Five moves · Play it in 10 minutes五步小游戏 · 十分钟玩完

Climate risk doesn't live in the news. It lives at your address. 气候风险不在新闻里，
它就在你的地址上。

A factory. A school. Grandma's flat on the 7th floor. Type where it is, and this page will tell you which hazards are already knocking, when they get serious, what it costs in money — and one thing you can do before dinner. 一间工厂、一所学校、外婆七楼的家。把地址打进去，这一页会告诉你：哪些灾害已经在敲门、什么时候会变严重、折成钱是多少——以及今晚吃饭前你就能做的一件事。

rule of the game: never stop at step 1.
click → dig → come back → check again 👀 游戏规则：别停在第一步。
点开 → 深挖 → 回头 → 再看一次 👀
MOVE 01

Drop the pin先落一个点

Risk is not a global number. It is a street, a floor level, a drain, a substation. Start with a city or district name — the page will match it to a climate profile. 风险从来不是一个全球数字，而是一条街、一个楼层、一个排水口、一台变压器。先输入城市或区名，页面会把它对上一份气候画像。

// nothing leaves this page. no server, no tracker, no upload. the whole game runs in your browser. // 什么都不会离开这一页。没有服务器、没有追踪、不上传。整个游戏都在你的浏览器里跑。
MOVE 02

Meet your hazards认识你的灾害

Open each one. Inside: what it physically is, how it travels from the sky to your bank account, the three "why"s underneath, and three actions — today, this year, this decade. 逐个点开。里面有：它到底是什么、它如何从天空一路走到你的账户、底下的三个「为什么」，以及三个行动——今天、今年、这十年。

Hong Kong — worked example香港 — 示范例子
Subtropical coastal, steep and dense. Typhoon alley meets ~2,400 mm of rain a year, stacked on 8,000 buildings per square kilometre.亚热带沿海，山陡楼密。台风走廊，年雨量约2,400毫米，全都落在极高密度的楼群上。
Risk index风险指数
78/100
High高
the 7 Sept 2023 rainstorm dropped 158.1 mm in ONE hour — the heaviest since records began in 1884. shops, car parks, a whole MTR station under water. 2023年9月7日的暴雨，一小时下了158.1毫米——1884年有记录以来最强。商铺、停车场、整个港铁站泡在水里。
SevereTyphoon wind & wet season storms台风大风与雨季风暴already here已经发生+
What it is这是什么

Not more storms — a bigger share of the most violent ones, wetter and slower-moving, with tracks drifting poleward.不是台风更多，而是最猛烈的那一类占比更高、更湿、移动更慢，路径向高纬度漂移。

How it reaches you它怎样走到你身上

Wind → glass, signage, rooftop plant, scaffolding → water follows the broken envelope → 3–10 days of closure while the city clears itself.大风 → 玻璃、招牌、天台设备、棚架 → 破口之后水跟着进来 → 城市清理期间停摆3至10天。

The money钱
Business interruption typically costs 2–5× the physical repair. Typhoon Mangkhut (2018) shattered hundreds of curtain-wall panels across Hong Kong; Hurricane Ida (2021) came to about US$75bn.停工损失通常是维修费的2至5倍。2018年山竹打碎全港数以百计的幕墙玻璃；2021年飓风艾达造成约750亿美元损失。
Why? why? why?为什么？为什么？为什么？
  • Why is the damage worse than the wind speed suggests? Because one broken window turns the whole building into a pressure vessel.为什么破坏比风速看起来更严重？因为一块玻璃破了，整栋楼就变成一个受压容器。
  • Why does that cost so much? Because the rain that follows kills electrics, lifts and stock — the wind only opens the door.为什么这么贵？因为随后的雨会毁掉电气、电梯和货品——风只是把门打开。
  • Why isn't it fixed already? Because façades are replaced on a 30-year cycle, and most of them were specified for last century's storms.为什么还没修好？因为幕墙三十年才换一次，而大部分是按上个世纪的风压标准做的。
Do it动手
Today · free今天 · 免费Read your last typhoon day like an audit: what broke, who didn't know what to do. Write it down before it's forgotten.把上一次台风天当作一次审计：什么坏了、谁不知道该做什么。趁还记得，写下来。
This year · US$1k–20k今年 · 1千–2万美元Certified film or shutters on exposed elevations, tie down rooftop items, pre-agree an emergency contractor, back data off-site.受风立面贴认证安全膜或加百叶，固定天台杂物，预先签好抢修承办商，数据异地备份。
This decade这十年Uprate the façade at the next renovation, add backup power, and write "closed for five days" into the cash-flow plan.下次装修时提高幕墙等级，加装备用电源，并把「停业五天」写进现金流预算。
source: IPCC AR6 WGI Ch.11 · Hong Kong Observatory tropical cyclone records · Swiss Re sigma
HighCloudburst flooding (rain, not river)暴雨内涝（不是河水，是雨）already here已经发生+
What it is这是什么

Short, violent rain arriving faster than drains designed for a 1-in-10-year storm can swallow. Warmer air holds about 7% more water per 1°C.短促而猛烈的雨，来得比按「十年一遇」设计的排水管能吞下的还快。空气每暖1°C，能多含约7%的水汽。

How it reaches you它怎样走到你身上

Cloudburst → the road becomes the river → water enters the lowest opening: basement, car park, lift pit, server room → power trips → everything above stops too.暴雨 → 马路变河 → 水从最低的开口进来：地库、停车场、电梯井、机房 → 跳电 → 楼上一切也跟着停。

The money钱
Basement water is the most expensive water there is — switchgear, lifts and servers all live at the lowest point. Global weather-related losses have run above US$300bn a year, and flood is the most frequent driver.地库的水是最贵的水——配电房、电梯和服务器全在最低点。全球天气灾害年损失已超3,000亿美元，洪水是最频繁的推手。
Why? why? why?为什么？为什么？为什么？
  • Why does it flood when the river is far away? Because this water never reached a river — the drains filled in twenty minutes.河明明很远，为什么会淹？因为这些水根本没到河里——排水管二十分钟就满了。
  • Why is it worse than twenty years ago? More paved surface plus heavier bursts. Both changed at the same time.为什么比二十年前糟？硬化地面变多，加上雨更集中。两件事同时变了。
  • Why doesn't the city just enlarge the pipes? Because rebuilding a drainage network costs billions and decades — which is why sponge surfaces and door-level barriers came first.为什么不干脆把管做大？因为重建排水网络要几百亿和几十年——所以先做海绵地面和门口挡水板。
Do it动手
Today · free今天 · 免费Walk your site in the rain. Photograph every opening below street level. That's your map.下雨时绕自己的场地走一圈，把每个低于街面的开口都拍下来。那就是你的地图。
This year · US$300–3,000 per door今年 · 每个开口300–3,000美元Flood barriers at openings, move switchboard and servers above the highest known water line, non-return valves on drains.开口加挡水闸，把配电箱和服务器抬到历史最高水线以上，排水管加装止回阀。
This decade这十年Permeable paving, a rain garden or blue roof, and a designed flood path so water leaves the way you chose.透水铺装、雨水花园或蓄水屋顶，并设计一条泄水路径——让水按你选的方向走。
source: IPCC AR6 WGI · WRI Aqueduct Floods · MOHURD Sponge City programme
HighExtreme heat & nights that never cool极端高温与不降温的夜晚already here已经发生+
What it is这是什么

More days above 33°C and warmer nights that never let the building cool down. Humidity is the killer: at a wet-bulb temperature near 31°C, sweating stops working.33°C以上的日子更多，夜里也不再降温，楼一整晚都散不掉热。真正致命的是湿度：湿球温度接近31°C时，出汗就不再有用。

How it reaches you它怎样走到你身上

Hot night → walls hold the heat → AC at maximum by 3pm → the grid sags → machines overheat, people slow down, sick days rise, cooling bills compound.热夜 → 墙体蓄热 → 下午三点空调全开 → 电网吃紧 → 设备过热、人变慢、病假变多、电费复利式上升。

The money钱
The ILO estimates heat will cost 2.2% of all working hours worldwide by 2030 — about US$2.4 trillion a year. Indoors, output falls roughly 2–3% for every degree above about 24°C.国际劳工组织估计，到2030年高温将吞掉全球2.2%的工作时数——约每年2.4万亿美元。室内温度每高于约24°C一度，产出大致下降2–3%。
Why? why? why?为什么？为什么？为什么？
  • Why is my street hotter than the airport? Concrete and asphalt store the day's sun and release it all night — the urban heat island, worth 2–7°C.为什么我这条街比机场热？混凝土和沥青白天存太阳、整夜放热——城市热岛，值2到7度。
  • Why does that cost money? Because cooling is the biggest line on the electricity bill, and overheating raises errors, accidents and staff turnover.为什么这要花钱？因为制冷是电费里最大的一条，而过热会让错误、事故和离职一起上升。
  • Why doesn't insurance cover it? Because heat damage is slow and diffuse — there is no single "event" to claim. You pay it as running cost, forever.为什么保险不赔？因为热损害缓慢又分散，没有一个可以索赔的「事件」。它变成你永远要付的运营成本。
Do it动手
Today · US$15今天 · 15美元Put a cheap thermometer/hygrometer where people actually sit, for 14 days. You cannot manage what you never measured.买个便宜的温湿度计，放在人真正坐的位置，记14天。没量过的东西，管不了。
This year · US$3–8/m²今年 · 每平方米3–8美元Reflective roof coating (cuts top-floor peak 2–5°C), external shading on west windows, and a written heat rule: who stops work, at what temperature.屋顶反射涂层（顶层峰值可降2–5°C）、西晒窗外遮阳，再写一条高温规则：谁在几度停工。
This decade这十年Trees and water on the approach, ventilation with heat recovery, solar plus a battery so the hottest hours are self-powered.在入口一带种树引水，装热回收新风，屋顶光伏加储能——让最热的几小时自己供电。
source: ILO, Working on a Warmer Planet (2019) · IPCC AR6 WGI Ch.11 · WHO–WMO heat–health guidance
…then scroll down and price it 💸…然后往下滑，把它折成钱 💸
MOVE 03

Now make it money现在，把它换成钱

Climate risk becomes real the moment it appears on an invoice: a premium, a repair, a lost week, a valuation. Here is the world's arithmetic — then yours. 当气候风险出现在一张发票上——保费、维修、停工一周、资产重估——它才真正变成现实。先看世界的算术，再算你自己的。

4×
Return on adaptation: US$1.8 trillion invested 2020–2030 returns about US$7.1 trillion in avoided losses and gains.适应的回报：2020–2030年投入1.8万亿美元，可换回约7.1万亿美元的避损与收益。
Global Commission on Adaptation, "Adapt Now", 2019
$2.4T
Lost each year to heat at work by 2030 — 2.2% of all working hours on the planet.到2030年，高温每年从工作中拿走的钱——相当于全球2.2%的工作时数。
ILO, Working on a Warmer Planet, 2019
$1.47T
Estimated over-valuation of US property because flood risk isn't in the price yet.因为洪水风险还没计入价格，美国房产被高估的金额。
First Street Foundation, 12th National Risk Assessment, 2023
$6
Saved for every US$1 spent on hazard mitigation — up to $11 when modern building codes are adopted.每投入1美元防灾，可省下的金额——采用现代建筑规范时最高可达11美元。
US National Institute of Building Sciences, Mitigation Saves, 2019

Your own line item你自己的那一条账

Three sliders. Order-of-magnitude only — but the order of magnitude is usually the surprise.三条滑杆。只算数量级——但通常，令人吃惊的正是那个数量级。

$26,400
Heat: productivity quietly lost each year高温：每年悄悄流失的生产力
$30,000
Water: expected annual flood damage水：预期的年均水浸损失
$34,000
Downtime: storms and outages, per year停摆：风灾与停电，按年计
heat_loss = people × cost_per_person × heat_factor(level: 0.4% / 1.0% / 2.2% / 3.5%)
flood_loss = asset_value × EAD(level: 0.05% / 0.2% / 0.6% / 1.2%)
downtime = (people × cost_per_person ÷ 220 working days) × expected_days_closed(0.3 / 1 / 2.5 / 5)
payback = (asset_value × 2% protection spend) ÷ annual_loss
— coefficients from ILO heat-productivity work, published flood damage-probability curves and post-event closure studies. This is a conversation starter, not an engineering assessment. — 系数取自国际劳工组织的高温生产力研究、公开的洪水损失概率曲线与灾后停业统计。这是用来开始对话的，不是工程评估报告。
MOVE 04

Who is doing it well — and what everyone is still missing谁做得好——以及所有人还漏了什么

Eight places, eight lessons. Each card: what works ✓, what's on trend ↗, what's missing ! — and the why underneath it. 八个地方，八个教训。每张卡片：什么有效 ✓、什么正在成为趋势 ↗、什么还缺 ! ——以及底下的为什么。

Netherlands — water as a budget line, not an emergency荷兰 —— 把水当成预算科目，不是紧急事件01
A Delta Act, a Delta Commissioner and a Delta Fund of roughly €1.5–1.9bn every single year to 2050. "Room for the River" (~€2.3bn) gave rivers space to spread instead of only building dikes higher.一部《三角洲法》、一位三角洲专员，以及一个每年约15–19亿欧元、一直到2050年的三角洲基金。「还地于河」（约23亿欧元）让河流有地方漫开，而不是一味把堤加高。
Adaptive delta management: decisions are planned as pathways with trigger points, so plans change when the sea does.适应性三角洲管理：决策被写成带触发点的「路径」，海变了，计划就跟着变。
Hard to copy. Most deltas cannot raise €1.5bn a year, and the newest binding problems — salt intrusion and summer drought — are not solved by dikes at all.很难抄。多数三角洲拿不出每年15亿欧元；而最新的硬约束——咸潮上溯和夏季干旱——堤坝根本解决不了。
  • Why does it work? Because the money is permanent. Why is it permanent? Because it's in law, not in a budget cycle. Why does that matter? Because adaptation takes 30 years and elections take 4.为什么有效？因为钱是长期的。为什么能长期？因为写进了法律，而不是预算周期。为什么重要？因为适应要三十年，而选举只有四年。
Japan — a cathedral under the suburbs, then a whole-basin rethink日本 —— 郊外地下的「神殿」，再到全流域治水02
Tokyo's Metropolitan Outer Underground Discharge Channel (G-Cans) — about ¥230bn of tunnels and surge tanks that swallow floodwater before it reaches the city.首都圈外郭放水路（G-Cans）——约2,300亿日元的隧道与调压水槽，在洪水抵达市区前先把它吞掉。
Since 2020, "river basin disaster resilience" (流域治水): upstream paddies, private land, dams and cities all share the job of storing water.2020年起推行「流域治水」：上游稻田、私人土地、水库与城市共同承担蓄水责任。
Ageing rural infrastructure and heat: most heatstroke deaths are elderly people indoors, at night, with the air-conditioner switched off to save money.农村基建老化，以及高温：多数中暑死亡是长者在室内、在夜里，为省电费关掉冷气。
  • Why build concrete AND share the burden? Because concrete has a ceiling — you can't tunnel your way out of a 7%-wetter atmosphere.为什么既造混凝土、又要分担？因为混凝土有上限——大气多含7%的水汽，是挖不出来的。
Singapore — planning a century ahead, and pricing it out loud新加坡 —— 提前一百年规划，并且把价钱说出来03
Around S$100bn earmarked over 100 years for coastal protection; minimum platform levels for new development raised to 4 m above mean sea level; drainage designed with climate change built in.为海岸防护预留约1,000亿新元、跨越百年；新开发的最低地台标高提高到平均海平面以上4米；排水设计已把气候变化算进去。
A national Coastal–Inland Flood Model that treats sea, rain and drains as one system instead of three departments.全国「海岸–内陆洪水模型」，把海、雨、排水当成一个系统，而不是三个部门。
It is a wealthy city-state with one government and one coastline. The transferable part isn't the money — it's saying the number in public.它是一个富裕的城邦，只有一个政府、一条海岸线。可以借鉴的不是钱，而是敢把数字公开说出来。
  • Why announce a 100-year price tag? Because a number lets citizens, banks and builders plan. Vagueness is what stops investment.为什么要公布百年的价钱？因为有了数字，市民、银行和开发商才能规划。含糊，才是投资的杀手。
China — sponge cities at scale, and a 2035 adaptation strategy中国 —— 规模化的海绵城市与2035适应战略04
The Sponge City programme (30 pilots from 2015) targets 80% of built-up urban area absorbing and reusing 70% of rainfall by 2030. The National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035 puts adaptation into provincial planning; climate-adaptive city pilots now cover dozens of cities.海绵城市试点（2015年起30个）目标是到2030年，80%的城市建成区能吸收并利用70%的降雨。《国家适应气候变化战略2035》把适应写进省级规划；气候适应型城市试点已扩展到数十个城市。
From single projects to design standards — permeable paving, retention greenery and river corridors written into new district rules.从单个项目走向设计标准——透水铺装、滞蓄绿地与河廊被写进新区规范。
Retrofitting dense old districts is far harder than building new ones; heat plans still lag flood plans; and small firms rarely get parcel-level risk data they can act on.老旧密集城区的改造远比新区难；高温应对仍落后于防洪；中小企业也很难拿到能据以行动的地块级风险数据。
  • Why does the sponge still flood? Because a sponge handles the ordinary storm brilliantly and the record-breaking one barely at all — it buys time, not immunity.海绵为什么还会淹？因为海绵对付常规暴雨极好，对付破纪录的那一场几乎无能为力——它买的是时间，不是免疫。
India, Ahmedabad — the cheapest life-saving plan ever written印度·艾哈迈达巴德 —— 史上最便宜的救命计划05
After a 2010 heatwave killed more than a thousand people, the city wrote South Asia's first Heat Action Plan (2013): colour-coded warnings, hospital protocols, cool roofs, water points, shifted work hours. Independent studies estimate roughly 1,100+ deaths avoided per year. It is now copied by dozens of Indian cities.2010年热浪夺去逾千人性命后，该市在2013年写出南亚第一份《高温行动计划》：分级预警、医院预案、白色凉屋顶、供水点、调整工时。独立研究估计每年可避免约1,100多人死亡。如今已被数十个印度城市复制。
Heat officers and heat seasons treated like cyclone seasons: named, forecast, rehearsed.设立「高温官」，把高温季当作台风季来管：命名、预报、演练。
Money. Reviews of India's heat plans find most have no dedicated budget and few identify who is actually most vulnerable — the outdoor worker with no shade, the tin-roof home with no window.缺的是钱。对印度各地高温计划的评估发现，多数没有专项预算，也很少明确谁最脆弱——没有遮阴的户外工人、没有窗的铁皮屋。
  • Why is it so cheap? Because most heat deaths are preventable with information and water. Why isn't it everywhere then? Because heat kills quietly, indoors, and never makes a photograph.为什么这么便宜？因为多数高温死亡靠资讯和水就能避免。那为什么没有推广开？因为高温杀人是安静的、在室内的，永远拍不出一张照片。
France & Paris — planning for +4°C, starting with schoolyards法国·巴黎 —— 按+4°C规划，从校园操场开始06
Paris's OASIS schoolyards: asphalt lifted, trees and water put in, and the yards opened to the neighbourhood as cool refuges on heat days. France's third national adaptation plan explicitly designs public infrastructure for a +4°C France.巴黎的OASIS「绿洲校园」：掀掉沥青，种树引水，热浪日向社区开放作为纳凉点。法国第三份国家适应计划更明确要求公共基建按「+4°C的法国」来设计。
Naming a planning temperature. Once "+4°C" is official, every drain size, tree species and window becomes an argument you can win.给规划定一个温度。一旦「+4°C」成为官方口径，每一根排水管的口径、每一种树、每一扇窗，都变成可以据理力争的事。
Private housing retrofit — the top-floor flat under an uninsulated roof — and canopy inequality: the poorest districts have the fewest trees.私人住宅改造仍是缺口——顶楼那间屋顶没保温的房子；还有绿荫的不平等：最穷的区，树最少。
  • Why start with schools? Because they are public land, in every neighbourhood, empty in August — and children overheat first.为什么从学校开始？因为那是每个社区都有的公共用地，八月还空着——而且孩子最先中暑。
United States — the market is repricing faster than politics美国 —— 市场重新定价的速度，快过政治07
Parcel-level risk data went public: any household can now look up its own flood, fire and heat rating. Miami-Dade appointed the world's first Chief Heat Officer in 2021, and heat officers have since appeared in Athens, Freetown and beyond.地块级的风险数据公开了：任何一户人家都能查到自家的水浸、山火与高温评级。迈阿密-戴德县在2021年任命了全球第一位「首席高温官」，此后雅典、弗里敦等地陆续跟进。
Insurance is the loudest climate signal in the country — insurers pulling back from parts of California and Florida, where average premiums have run several times the national figure.保险成了全国最响亮的气候信号——保险公司在加州和佛州部分地区收缩，而当地平均保费已是全国水平的数倍。
Federal adaptation funding is unstable, and almost every good tool is built for large asset owners. The renter, the corner shop and the small factory are still on their own.联邦层面的适应资金不稳定，而几乎所有好工具都是为大型资产持有者做的。租客、街角小店和小工厂，仍然只能靠自己。
  • Why does insurance move first? Because it reprices every year, while a building lasts sixty. Why does that hurt? Because the bill lands on whoever owns the least.为什么保险跑得最快？因为保费一年一改，而一栋楼要活六十年。为什么这很痛？因为账单最后落在资产最少的人头上。
Africa & the finance gap — risk sits where the capital isn't非洲与资金缺口 —— 风险落在没有资本的地方08
Kenya's county climate change funds push adaptation money down to ward level, where communities choose the project — water pans, boreholes, storage — and maintain it themselves.肯尼亚的县级气候变化基金把适应资金下放到乡一级，由社区自己选项目——蓄水塘、水井、仓储——并自己维护。
Early-warning systems and parametric insurance that pays out on a measured trigger (rainfall, wind speed) instead of a loss assessor's visit.早期预警系统与参数保险：按可测量的触发条件（雨量、风速）赔付，而不是等查勘员上门。
Scale. UNEP puts developing-country adaptation needs at roughly US$215–387bn a year against international public flows of around US$28bn — a gap of ten to one, in the places where each dollar saves the most.规模。联合国环境署估算发展中国家的适应需求约为每年2,150–3,870亿美元，而国际公共资金流约280亿美元——十比一的缺口，偏偏出现在每一块钱最能救命的地方。
  • Why is the gap so wide? Because adaptation avoids losses instead of producing revenue — and our finance system is still built to fund revenue.为什么缺口这么大？因为适应带来的是「避免损失」，不是「产生收入」——而我们的金融体系至今只擅长为收入融资。

the pattern in all eight: whoever writes the money into law, and the temperature into the design code, wins. everyone else is still calling it "weather". 八个案例的共同点：谁把钱写进法律、把温度写进设计规范，谁就赢了。其他人，还在把它叫作「天气」。

MOVE 05

Do one thing. Then come back.做一件事，然后回来。

Tick what you've actually done — not what you intend to. The counter is only for you; nothing is saved or sent.只勾你真的做了的，不是打算做的。计数只给你自己看，不保存、不上传。

  • TodayMeasured the temperature where people actually sit, or photographed every opening below street level.量了人真正坐着的位置的温度，或拍下了每一个低于街面的开口。
  • TodayWrote down what broke in the last storm, flood or heatwave — and who didn't know what to do.写下上一次风灾、水浸或热浪中，什么坏了、谁不知道该怎么做。
  • TodayListed everything that stops in the first 60 minutes of a power cut. That list is the plan.列出停电头60分钟内会停摆的一切。这张清单就是应急计划。
  • 90 daysMoved the switchboard, servers or irreplaceable records above the highest water line ever recorded here.把配电箱、服务器或不可替代的档案，搬到本地历史最高水线以上。
  • 90 daysBought door barriers, window film or shade for the worst-exposed side — and rehearsed using them once.为最暴露的那一面买了挡水板、安全膜或遮阳，并且演练过一次。
  • 90 daysChecked the insurance wording: does it cover storm surge and business interruption, or only "rain"?看清保单条款：到底保不保风暴潮和停业损失，还是只保「雨」？
  • DecadePut the roof, the trees, the drainage and the backup power into the next renovation budget — not a separate "green" budget.把屋顶、树、排水和备用电源写进下一次装修预算——而不是另开一个「绿色」预算。
  • DecadeTalked to the neighbours, the estate or the district. No single building can hold back a street of water.和邻居、管理处或街区谈过。没有一栋楼能挡住一整条街的水。
0 of 8 done — start with the free one, it takes four minutes.已完成 0 / 8 —— 从免费那一条开始，只要四分钟。
run it again for another address — home, then work, then your parents' place.换个地址再跑一次——先家里，再公司，然后是爸妈那边。
METHOD

How this was calculated这是怎么算出来的

No black box. The framework is the IPCC's, the numbers are public, and the limits are listed below.没有黑箱。框架来自IPCC，数字全部公开，局限也一并列在下面。

RISK = HAZARD × EXPOSURE × VULNERABILITY ÷ ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
hazard = what the climate does here · exposure = what of yours is in the way · vulnerability = how badly it breaks · adaptive capacity = what you can do about it 危害＝这里的气候会做什么 · 暴露＝你的什么东西挡在那里 · 脆弱性＝它有多容易坏 · 适应能力＝你能做什么

index = Σ(hazard levels) ÷ (4 × number of hazards) × 100
Level等级 What it means here在这里代表什么 Rough signal大致信号
1Watch关注Present but rare; plan on a 10-year horizon.存在但少见；按十年周期规划即可。
2Moderate中等Disrupts operations occasionally; cheap fixes still work.偶尔打断运作；便宜的办法还有效。
3High高Recurring damage or closure; already a budget item.反覆造成损失或停业；已经是预算项目。
4Severe严重A defining risk of the site; affects insurance, lease and value.这个场所的决定性风险；影响保险、租约和估值。

What this is not这不是什么

It is not a survey of your building. It works at city scale, so it cannot see whether your ground floor is 300 mm higher than the neighbour's — and that 300 mm often decides everything. It uses published regional profiles, not live weather. It does not know your drainage, your façade age, or your insurance wording. Treat it as the first ten minutes of a conversation you then take to an engineer, a broker, or your building manager.它不是对你那栋楼的勘测。它工作在城市尺度，因此看不出你的地面层是否比隔壁高了300毫米——而那300毫米往往决定一切。它用的是已发表的区域画像，不是实时天气；它不知道你的排水、幕墙年龄或保单条款。请把它当成一场对话的头十分钟，然后带着它去找工程师、保险经纪，或你的管理处。

SOURCES

Where every number came from每一个数字的出处

Search any title below to go deeper. Nothing here is invented; where a figure is an estimate or a range, it is stated as one.下面任何一个标题都可以拿去检索，继续深挖。这里没有杜撰；凡属估算或区间，都已标明。

Climate science气候科学

  1. IPCC, AR6 WGI (2021) — Ch.11 Weather and Climate Extremes; Ch.12 Regional Information
  2. IPCC, AR6 WGII (2022) — Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; risk framing (hazard × exposure × vulnerability)
  3. IPCC, Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere (2019) — sea-level rise projections
  4. WMO, State of the Global Climate (annual)
  5. Kulp & Strauss, "New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise", Nature Communications (2019)
  6. Hong Kong Observatory — rainfall and tropical cyclone records, incl. 158.1 mm/hour, 7 Sept 2023

Data & tools you can use你能用的数据与工具

  1. WRI Aqueduct Floods & Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas
  2. Climate Central — Coastal Risk Screening Tool
  3. First Street Foundation — National Risk Assessment (US, parcel level)
  4. Copernicus Climate Data Store / national meteorological services
  5. C40 & Arup — Climate Risk and Adaptation guidance for cities
  6. CDP Cities & Companies disclosures (open dataset)

Money, insurance & disclosure金钱、保险与披露

  1. Global Commission on Adaptation, "Adapt Now" (2019) — US$1.8tn → US$7.1tn net benefits
  2. ILO, "Working on a Warmer Planet" (2019) — 2.2% of working hours, US$2.4tn by 2030
  3. US National Institute of Building Sciences, "Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves" (2019) — $6:$1, $11:$1 for codes
  4. Swiss Re Institute, sigma — annual natural catastrophe economic and insured losses
  5. Munich Re NatCatSERVICE — annual loss review and protection gap
  6. First Street Foundation, 12th National Risk Assessment (2023) — US$1.47tn property over-valuation
  7. UNEP, Adaptation Gap Report (2024) — US$215–387bn/yr needs vs ~US$28bn flows
  8. ISSB IFRS S2 (2023) and EU CSRD / ESRS E1 — mandatory physical climate risk disclosure
  9. NOAA billion-dollar disasters archive (1980–2024)

Regional examples区域案例

  1. Netherlands Delta Programme & Delta Act; "Room for the River" evaluation
  2. Japan MLIT — River Basin Disaster Resilience and Sustainability by All (流域治水, 2020); Tokyo Metropolitan Outer Underground Discharge Channel
  3. Singapore PUB — Coastal–Inland Flood Model; National Day Rally 2019 (S$100bn coastal protection)
  4. MOHURD China — Sponge City pilot programme (2015–); National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035 (2022); climate-adaptive city pilots
  5. Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan (2013) and peer-reviewed mortality evaluations; Centre for Policy Research review of Indian heat action plans (2023)
  6. Paris OASIS schoolyards (EU Urban Innovative Actions); France PNACC-3 national adaptation plan (+4°C trajectory)
  7. Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center — Chief Heat Officers (Miami-Dade 2021, Athens, Freetown)
  8. World Bank / Kenya FLLoCA — Financing Locally-Led Climate Action